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AFGHAN QUAGMIRE; THE PAKISTAN FACTOR

November, 2008

Despite being bogged down in Afghanistan, the US struggle there continues unabated due to her long-term interests in Central Asia. Of late, Washington has started pointing to Pakistan as the most important reason for failures in Afghanistan. While Washington blames Pakistan, it keeps its door of intervention in Pakistan's internal affairs open.
Due to its strategic significance as the gateway to Central Asia, Afghanistan has attracted the attention of world powers for centuries. Before the U.S incursion into Afghanistan, the Soviet Union, one of the two superpowers during the Cold War, deployed 110.000 troops in Afghanistan at the height of its invasion during 1985-86, and lost 13000 of them while failing in its Afghan mission. The most important factor behind the Soviet failure was Pakistan.
During the Soviet-Afghan war, the United States' loyal ally Pakistan was the main channel through which the Afghan Mujahedeen (insurgents) received aid from the United States and Saudi Arabia. The main bases that reinforced and trained the Afghan Mujahedeen were all in Pakistan. Moreover, experts claim that the amount of aid funneled into Pakistan for the Afghan war was to the tune of $1 billion. The controversial question which is still debated is whether or not the Soviets planned to invade Pakistan, despite the U.S factor, to attain victory in Afghanistan but didn't dare to go that far.
Some U.S politicians today push for further U.S control over Pakistan. The fact that Pakistan is the only Muslim nuclear power justifies American desire to control it. The American strategy is to sustain its presence in Central Asia, notwithstanding the Russian Federation, by gaining victory in Afghanistan at all costs. This explains the seven years long U.S presence in Afghanistan. Some 35000 to 70.000 Coalition forces in Afghanistan are American. However, despite millions of dollars spent and substantial loss of life, Afghanistan is still out of control. Taliban is getting ever more powerful. The increasing strength of the insurgents, once again, turns all fingers to Pakistan. Americans angrily deplore Taliban's strongholds in Pakistan although they continue to funnel millions of dollars of military and economic aid to Islamabad.

Pakistan' Rebuttal

The Pakistanis think that the American perception and policies in Afghanistan are 180 degrees opposed to the ground reality. They point to American failures in Afghanistan despite their technological and military superiority. Moreover, they complain about the adverse effects of the US created instability in Afghanistan on Pakistan's domestic politics and economy. According to them, the problems move from Afghanistan to Pakistan, not vice versa as portrayed by the Western media. Apart from the Taliban, Pakistan also bemoans the problem of 3.5 million Afghan refugees, who settled in Pakistan during the Afghan war of the 1980s and the continuous influx of the Afghan refugees during the current war.
The Pakistani complaints about the Afghan refugees are not only about the fact that they are an economic and social burden; Pakistan is also concerned about the refugees' support to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives and their participation in the destructive activities in Pakistan. Moreover, the refugees are becoming a pawn in the hands of India and are creating opportunities for India's intelligence service RAW to make trouble in Pakistan.
Islamabad further claims that some of the members of the Karzai government are in direct contact with India's intelligence agencies and support secret operations against Pakistan, which hurts the multilateral cooperation against terrorism.
Pakistan claims that the consulates on the Afghan-Pakistan border function as the headquarters of India's anti-Pakistan activities. The claims that most of the people working in these consulates work against Pakistan, in cahoots with the Afghan officials, tell of the weakest link in the international struggle against terrorism.
Some observers maintain that India's support to miscreants in Pakistan is in retaliation against Pakistan's support to Muslim resistance in the India owned valley of Kashmir. It is also claimed in Pakistan that the Indian intelligence services that work with the Americans instill negative perceptions in the American officials' minds regarding their Pakistani allies.
One of the most convincing arguments forwarded by Pakistan, which is also taken up by the American media, is that the opium production in Afghanistan continues to grow unabated. The Helmand region, (where ISAF deploys a large number of its soldiers,) produces 50% of opium in Afghanistan. The coalition forces are unable to stop this production. Moreover, the revenue acquired from opium is funding terrorism in the world, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The increase in opium fields in Afghanistan from 104 thousand hectares, in 2005, to 193 thousand hectares, and the fact that these opium fields are under the control of the ISAF and the Afghan National Forces, is another testimony to the unbridled presence of funds that feed terrorism in the Afghan region. The opium production, which is said to have reached 4 billion dollars worth of revenue, comprises 50% of the Afghan economy. This shows that the problem will continue.
In addition, former communists, ex-mujahedeen, and politicians who are related to opium producing clans and regions, are represented within the Afghan Parliament and prominent administrative set ups. These individuals have been protecting drug barons.
New political parties and movements opposed to President Hamid Karzai, like "Hizbe-e-Jumhuri Khwahan Afghanistan", make Karzai's job more difficult than before and provide a political environment that is helpful to Taliban and Al-Qaeda. This claim can be verified by the fact that an increasing number of people are joining the Taliban.
Both at the north and south borders of Afghanistan, more lives will be lost in the future as the Taliban continues to increase its strength and suicide attacks in Kabul, Kandahar, Bughlan and Spin Boldak, with the use of improvised explosive devices. Against this backdrop, the one crucial fact that the Western media never talks about is that the Afghan National Forces remain undermanned and underdeveloped. The Afghan Army, which was slated to reach 150 thousand by 2006, remains at 70.000 and mostly unoperational. This is another factor that weakens the Afghan state's struggle against terrorism.
How can Pakistan be expected to fully control 2,200 kilometer long mountainous Pakistan-Afghanistan border when the U.S, despite its relative power, fails to control its border with Mexico to prevent illegal immigration to the U.S. It is unreal to expect Pakistan to control the movement to and fro Afghan border in its entirety. This is why turning Pakistan into a scapegoat is unfair. Besides, Pakistan not only works hard for Pakistan-Afghanistan border security, it has also conducted successful operations against radical religious groups. As a result of these efforts many important Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants and leaders have been captured and brought to justice.

Vice-President of National Security Strategies Research Center (TUSAM)

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