The Taliban, even at the apogee of its power, could not sustain full control over North Afghanistan. Following American intervention, the Taliban has sustained some power over the southern provinces. Today, however, the campaign carried out by Western allies since February with the help of the Karzai administration provides new opportunities for the Taliban for infiltrating North Afghanistan.
Lately, the Afghan administration, which has the full support of London and Washington, is systematically trying to break down the Northern Alliance's political structure. The first steps in this effort, preparations having started a year ago, were the dismissal of the Chief of Staff Abdul Rashid Dostum, followed by stripping him of his rank and finally that of his arrest. The Karzai administration has some reason for such a disposition. The first that comes to mind is that Karzai does not want a rival in the next Presidential election. In the last election, Dostum ran for office against Karzai and got 10% of the vote. It is known that Dostum, or any other candidate that is supported by the Northern Alliance, is going to get more votes. This is because, the Northern Alliance appears as the most powerful organisation that can realise the people's will. On the other hand, were the occupying powers to withdraw from the country, Karzai's political future/career would inescapably end. Consequently, what Karzai needs is a rivalry free political manoeuvring area and tons of money. Karzai, with the help of Western states, uses financial resources and even military helicopters, without limit. In the process of eliminating political rivalry, blackmailing and various accusations are put into use constantly.

Karzai has established contact with many people in his efforts to divide the Northern Alliance and establish a structure that is against Dostum and linked to him. In meetings with Turkmen National Unity leader Akbar Bai, Freedom Party leader and Taryab Commander General Malik, the Minister of Social Services Nur Mohammed Kerkin, who is of Turkmen origin, and the Governor of Balkh Province Ata Mohammed Nur, Karzai has asked them to pressurise Dostum and Afghan Turks.
Akbar Bai has critical significance for the Karzai administration. Akbar Bai, once Rashid Dostum's right arm, and who even helped in his election campaign, now works for Karzai. Akbar Bai, who was sent to the Samangan Province for special duty in April, is known to have paid a significant amount of money to one of the regions commanders Kazem and the Governor of Balkh Province Ata Mohammed Nur to be allowed to contest against Dostum. Akbar Bai also visited the Commander of Arabs, Aga Mohammed Han, the Taliban's former Minister of Defence Molla Abdul Rezzak and the Governor of Jawzjan Khan Ahmdar and General Malik in Faryab. Akbar Bai promised political and financial support in these meetings, naturally, on behalf of President Karzai.
The accusations, which resulted in Dostum's loss of rank and his arrest, were based on his struggles with Akbar Bai. Bai accuses Dostum of igniting an uprising within the Turkmen population and the attempted murder of the Turkmen opposition. Another accusation is that Dostum and 70 of his men abducted Bai and his son from their house in the province of Kabul in March and tortured them for hours.
All efforts of the Afghan administration appear to be aimed at dividing the Northern Alliance. The statement by General Dostum that Tajiks and Uzbeks will start an uprising, during the days when his house was surrendered, reminds us of the initial phases of civil war following the end of Soviet occupation. Dostum commands an army of thousands who are heavily armed. An uprising, which Dostum could initiate because of his arrest, will not be confined to Mezari Sharif. If Dostum were to embark upon a war against the administration, Gulbeddin Hikmetyar, who is one of the significant leaders of the Islamic community, and the Taliban would seek an ad hoc alliance with Dostum. The Taliban, as understood, is silently waiting for this opportunity. In case of civil war in Afghanistan, the Taliban would infiltrate North Afghanistan. In this case, not only the Afghan administration, but NATO would also experience hardship. The Taliban would then increase in strength by taking advantage of a power void and infiltrating North Afghanistan. The work of Provincial Reconstruction Teams, which are spread all around Afghanistan, would be negatively influenced (?). There is no need to even mention the difficulties that the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan would experience.
The arrest of Rashid Dostum may lead to an uprising of Afghan Turks; this is evidently seen. The breakdown of relative stability in Afghanistan, which hangs by a thread, is inevitable in the case of an uprising and is also acknowledged by the Afghanistan MP and the Afghanistan National Security Council's Domestic Defence Committee Vice Chairman Halid Pestun. Pakistani political scientist Abdulhey Anis asserts that the arrest of Dostum will deteriorate the situation in Afghanistan and as a result of this decision Uzbek Turks will join with other opposition groups, making it more effective for them to project their power .
The uprising of Afghan Turks will not only break the stability in Afghanistan, but spread to other Turkic republics. Infiltration of many foreign fighters from Central Asian states via the Fergana Valley to Afghanistan in support of Dostum is expected. The Fergana Valley, which is already known as a backdoor for terrorists, will become a door that opens to the world for Afghan Turks. The Taliban's wish to use this opportunity would excessively disturb Central Asian states, which are standing on a delicate balance between Russia and China. At the instance when conflict in North Afghanistan affects neighbouring states, these states might become involved in armed clashes in border regions.
Naturally, Karzai's operation to divide the Northern Alliance has other implications. Without doubt, an increase of 64% in annual opium production under the Karzai period and despite the UN's warnings, the non-functional precautions taken by Karzai raises question marks. Significant documents were published asserting the involvement of the Karzai family in narcotics smuggling . An answer to the question of the benefits of the dissolution of the Northern Alliance is to get a bigger share from narcotics trafficking. There is no sign of a heed of warnings about "Operation Enduring Freedom" turning Afghanistan into a narco-state . Furthermore, there is an increase in heroin production facilities as well as in opium fields, as cited in the report of United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Narcotics are an invaluable source of finance for civil war. The reason for the increase after the fall of the Taliban is that intermediary agents of narcotics trafficking and landlords have a significant influence in the Karzai administration. Some Afghan officials even assert that the brother of President Hamid Karzai, Ahmed Vali, is effective in narcotics trafficking in Kandahar. Hamid Karzai still resists US proposals to aerial spray the area to destroy poppy fields based on a "threat to public health".
In the case of an uprising of Afghan Turks, pipelines, which will transport Central Asian and Caspian basin oil to the Indian Ocean, will be endangered. The pipeline's entrance point from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan is the Northern Alliance's stronghold. If Karzai ever embarks upon a decisive clash with the Northern Alliance, significant armed clashes will be experienced in this region and the best option for him would be to shift the pathway of the pipeline to high mountains. Otherwise, just like the Teutonic Knights, 1,200 km's of pipeline will sink deeply into a swamp for eternity.

Endnotes
1 Türk Gündem "Özbek Türkleri Ayaklanabilir" http://www.turkgundem.net/icerik/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&... 30.05.2008
2 Abrashi, Fisnik "Afghanistan seeks to revive farming sector" Associated Press http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jn6D-WDhG93PV69geh653WAtjAgD90VR1280 30.05.2008
3 Walberg, Eric "Opium of the Masses" Austraila.to http://www.australia.to/story/0,25197,23040467-096,00,00.html 30.05.2008
4 Whitney, Mark "A Crude War of Revenge in Afghanistan"The New Nation http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2008/05/30/news0074.html 30.05.2008