It has been 15 years since the Bosnian War ended and Dayton Accord was signed. However, Bosnia Herzegovina is still trying to recover from the scars of the war that has caused the lives of more than hundred thousand people and the war that made the country witness the brutal crimes like ethnic cleansing and mass rapes.  Today, Bosnia is still on a transition period. The agreement that ended the war in 1995 divided the country into two autonomous ethnic entities. These are Serb majority area called the Republika Srpska, and a federation predominantly composed of Bosnian Muslims and Catholic Croats. After 15 years the societies became ever more separated from each other. Moreover, the war-torn economy which stands by foreign aid, ethnic division and  political instability still remain as the legacies of the war.
The October 3 general elections were held under these circumstances and in the wake of elections, political stability still seems distant while the ethnic division is likely to persist for a while in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The moderate candidates have won Muslim and Croat seats of the tripartite presidency. However,  the Serb seat has gone to a candidate who advocates secession. The results of the elections reveal that the Bosniaks and Croats favor solution whereas Serbs still go for separatism.  This diversity seems to resume the ongoing political deadlock.
In the elections representatives at the cantonal, regional and federal levels were selected. People voted to elect the tripartite presidency, the central parliament and assemblies for the two entities. In the Republic of Srpska people also voted for a president.
The winning name of the Muslim presidency is Bakir Izetbegovic of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA).  He is the son of legendary Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic. He favors a unified Bosnian state and stabilization.
For the Croat Presidency Zelijko Komsic of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is re-elected. He also supports unification in Bosnia. It is claimed that Komsic was elected in 2006 with the votes of Muslims. As he is highly supported by the Bosnian Muslims that may also be true for this elections. During the election campaign, Komsic was criticized by the other Croat parties with a claim that he can not represent Croats and he was urged to renounce his candidacy. Komsic had also fought in Muslim Bosnian Army during the war.  As İzzetbegovic, Komsic also supports a multi-ethnic Bosnia.[1]
On the other hand, Nebojsa Radmanovic of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats Radmanovic who is commited Serb secession idea was reelected for the Serb presidency. Radmanovic is remembered of his refusal to attend Srebrenica victims' commemoration. He told to the press about his absence with a justification on the grounds that Srebrenica is deeply politicized.[2]
The former prime minister and leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, has won the Presidency of Republika Srpska. Dodik is an uncompromising ethnic nationalist. He supports the secession from Bosnia and he is unwilling to cooperate with Muslims or the Croats in any issue. He believes that Republika Srpska will eventually be out of Bosnia.[3]
What to Expect from the Results of the Elections
The Bosnian elections do not promise much. The elections can not bring ethnic diversities in the country to an end. Moreover, it is unlikely to bring political stability. It is a positive development that moderate candidates were elected in the Muslim and Croatian presidency. However, reconciliation can only be reached with all sides compromising. Thus if a moderate Serbian leader was elected, the chance of resolution would be higher as nationalism in Republika Srpska seems more dangerous and potentially explosive. On contrary Serbs do not seem close to reconcile. They will keep using their veto power to make things more difficult. The reforms will be hindered by the veto power. Secessionist desires will keep them support the status quo and so the political deadlock. Then they might support an option for the Referendum for the future of the Republika Srpska. For this end, Kosovo remains in front of Serbs as an example to exploit. Kosovo declared its independence although it was an autonomous region in Serbia and did not have the Republic status. This would be represented as a model for the Serbs.
Instead of seeking a solution to the stalemate, nationalism is used for manipulation in the election campaigns.  Politicians exploited the ethnic division in the country and used nationalist rhetoric to manipulate people's feelings. Provocation was used as a tool to be elected mostly in Republika Srpska. For instance, in the election campaign, Milorad Dodik has called for Republika Srpska to break away from Bosnia. In addition, he did not hesitate to renounce Srebrenica incident to be a genocide. He also rejected integration as he believes that that would mean accepting the dominance of Muslims.[4]
As it is seen, Bosnia needs more than what new leaders can bring. Moreover, the leaders have not change at all as the only changing figure is the Muslims leader. Moreover Muslims are not the ones who are resisting to a solution. What Bosnia needs is reform to establish long-standing economic and political stability. Otherwise, instability may disclose the ethnic rivalries and lead to social upheavals. The elections reveal political deadlock and confirm that Dayton Treaty is not working anymore. The success of moderate Bosnian and Croat leaders do not mean very much when a separatist Serb leader is elected. The Dayton system brings the leaders who envisage different solutions for the future of Bosnia and this is what creates the deadlock. What Bosnia needs is a constitutional reform as the existing laws do not help Bosnia to recover.
What is the Solution?
Moreover, the instability in Bosnia and the chance of ethnic violence to re-erupt will threat the stability and security of Balkans and also Europe as a whole. The recent visit of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Bosnia reveals the extent that the world attaches importance to the unity of Bosnia. Thus the membership of Bosnia in NATO and EU is very important.T
he goal of Bosnia should be the fully integration with the western institutions. The peace was established in Bosnia with the intervention of the West. Now the integration with the west will preserve the fragile peace in Bosnia. To establish the democratic institutions, the Dayton accord should inevitably be revised. The constitutional reform in Bosnia will require serious effort and encouragement. Bid to EU membership will be the catalyst to stimulate Bosnia to make required reform.
The primary problems of Bosnia are economic. Bosnian economy is standing on foreign aid.  A large budget deficit and high unemployment rate remain the two most serious macroeconomic problems in Bosnia[5]. The stalemate in the country is also hindering the economic development. For the economy to improve, the risk of any ethnic tensions to end with violence must be averted. However, on contrary leaders in Bosnia-Herzegovina are exploiting the ethnic diversities to attract the attention away from economic problems.
The bid to become a member of the European is the only motivation for a change in Bosnia. The advantages of the EU membership in their minds, Bosnian Serbs, Muslims and Croats should work together for the same goal. To forget the hatred of the past the same objective can carry Bosnia out of the instability and deadlock and can bring positive prospects for the future to live together in peace. After the war, Bosnia has already achieved to live together in peace up to this date. However, the risk to provoke and burn the extinguished  fire of ethnic nationalism has always remained behind the scene. Now it should be the mission of the West, especially of Europe- which remained passive in the course of war- to integrate Bosnia in its institutions and contribute to the perpetuation of peace. One should also not forget that long-term viability of peace and stability in the Balkans will also contribute to the peace and stability of Europe. 

[1] Toby Vogel, "Moderate Muslim Elected To Bosnian Presidency", European Voice, 4 October 2010, http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2010/10/moderate-muslim-elected-to-..., (Accession: 23 October 2010)

[2] Sabina Arslanagic, "Srebrenica Commemorations Begin in Bosnia", Balkan Insight, 10 July 2010, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/srebrenica-commemorations-begin-..., (Accession: 23 October 2010)

[3] Patrick Donahue,  "Bosnia Serb Leader Dodik Won't Rule Out Republika Srpska Independence Vote", Bloomberg, 15 April 2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-15/bosnia-serb-leader-dodik-won-t-..., (Accession: 23 October 2010)

[4] Claire Bigg, "Nationalism High, Hopes Low In Bosnia Election", Radio Free Europe, 2 October 2010, http://www.rferl.org/content/Nationalism_High_Hopes_Low_Bosnia_Election/..., (Accessed: 24 October, 2010)

[5] Ina Dimireva,  "Bosnia and Herzegovina: Economy Overview", 04 February 2010 http://www.eubusiness.com/europe/bosnia/econ, (Accessed: 24 October, 2010)