Central Asia conjures up romantic images of a by-gone era that was once vibrant with caravans traversing the fabled silk route cris-crossing the vast Eurasian landmass. Central Asia was crucial to transport and trade links between the Far East and the West. Empires of the day coveted Central Asia. Today the Central Asian region with five independent Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) is once again re-emerging as a vibrant region. Within no time the newly independent and sovereign entities attracted world attention. This time Central Asia is being coveted for both economic and strategic reasons. The Central Asian region is estimated to be a vast storehouse of natural resources such as energy, uranium, gold, vital minerals etc. In fact the energy reserves of Central Asia has already sparked off an intense competition between the West particularly the United States of America and Russia for control of this strategic resource and if possible to enhance Western influence at best or at the minimal level to reduce Russian influence. Many observers of the Central Asian scene have dubbed the on-going competition as the new version of the nineteenth century "great game" for control and influence.
Apart from the abundant natural resources, the geographical location of Central Asia in the centre of Eurasia is also of equal importance. Central Asia flanks the perceived powers of the future, namely Russia and China. The region is also geographically proximate to the Middle East, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and South Asia. The imbroglio in Iraq, the stalemate in the war on terror Afghanistan, the stand off in the nuclear issue between the West and Iran and the continuing turmoil in the Middle East all serve to highlight the geopolitical significance of Central Asia for the world community.

The Great Game
In the aftermath of the oil crisis of 1973 when this resource was used as a tool to achieve political objectives, the energy issue had moved to the centre stage of international politics. The escalating demand for energy was not only confined to the industrialised nations, but also the developing countries as well. This added to the growing significance of this vital resource. As the question of ensuring energy security was acquiring prominence, the Central Asian Republics emerged as independent and sovereign entities. A whole new region richly endowed with natural resources including energy naturally drew world attention.
Among the Central Asian States - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have abundant natural resources including energy. The Kazakh and Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea are also rich in energy resources and the possibility of unexplored reserves being high is also real. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have plenty of hydel power. However, as compared to the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, the Central Asia reserves are modest. Nevertheless they do constitute a significant alternative.
A simultaneous but an unmistakable trend was the emerging rivalry between Russia and the West. The euphoria generated at the time of the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991 had begun to dissipate. Russia realised that were definite limits to its being accepted as a "natural partner" by the West. Possibly geopolitical considerations or civilisational differences or a combination of both could have been the limiting factors. In fact it soon paved the way for "cold peace'. The hallmark of which was co-operation and competition, though the latter tendency was in particular apparent in the context of ensuring energy security.
A peculiar geographical feature of Central Asia is that the region is landlocked and Uzbekistan is doubly so. This makes accessibility to the region's natural resources difficult. Therefore, any attempts to transport energy resources would require an excellent pipeline infrastructure. In no time the issue of building a new and a modern pipeline network assumed importance. Inextricably linked to the issue of providing several options to the landlocked Central Asian Republics was the politics of cold peace. The energy issue provided the West with an opportunity to advance their economic and strategic interests.
The U.S objective was that all post Soviet States should be independent, prosperous and secure. Former Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott believed that Americans presence and influence in the region could itself act as a force for the right kind of integration. The long term objective was to bolster the position of Turkey in the region. The US sought to make the point that Russian policy vis-a-vis the region could not be exclusive, but had to be inclusive. Naturally, the western preference was for the route that was in the westerly direction. The route envisaged was from Baku in Azerbaijan to Ceyhan in Turkey via Tbilsi in Georgia (BTC). The route by-passes Russia and both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have been invited to join the BTC. The unresolved legal status of the Caspian Sea has hindered Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan from joining the BTC. Incidentally the BTC has become operational since late 2005.
Russia is extremely rich in energy resources. It ranks second after Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production and reserves, and is the highest depository of natural gas in the world. Meanwhile the rapidly rising prices of oil has catapulted Russia to a position of leading energy power. The energy factor has helped Russia to deal with major Western powers from a position of strength. In the opinion of President Vladimir Putin the energy market is a "sellers market". Elaborating further the Chief of Gazprom (Russia's state owned monopoly for gas) Alexei Miller said that it implied customers ability to guarantee stable income to the supplier. The post Soviet space holds tremendous geopolitical significance for Russia. All its land boundaries are manmade, which add to its sense of vulnerabilities. The energy factor is also an effective instrument to deal with the states of post Soviet space. After the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991, one main pipeline, namely the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a private venture was built. The CPC carries Kazakh oil from its gigantic oil field in Tengiz to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Within no time pipeline politics had emerged in a big way; with symbolic rivals the BTC versus the CPC. With energy rich countries of Central Asia, Russia has exploited its near monopoly position on the pipeline infrastructure to ensure that their energy strategies are in tandem with its own. Coordination is necessary in order to maintain Russia's leading position as an ‘energy power'. A case in point is the recent agreement (November 27, 2007) between Gasprom and Turkmenistan on the purchase of Turkmen gas. Gasprom has offered a very favourable price, but the agreement has put into jeopardy the proposed Turkmenistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan (TAP) project. This project has been strongly backed by the US and the Asian Development Bank. India has also been keen to join the project, if it at all takes off. On the other hand given the landlocked status of Central Asia and absence of any legal settlement of the Caspian Sea status, dependence on Russia for transportation of its energy resources will continue for Central Asia.
China is also a recent entrant on the Central Asian energy scene. It has already built strong linkages with Kazakhstan in the energy sector. Kazakhstan's first independent pipeline was constructed with Chinese help. The pipeline connects Atasu (Central Kazakhstan) to Alashankou (Xinjiang) and is already operational. The pipeline is being extended upto Aktan on the Caspian Sea. This would give China a vantage position in a region that has fast acquired immense strategic significance. Although China is not yet an independent player in the great game, the possibility of its emerging as one cannot be ruled out. Regional issues of critical importance have got intertwined with the energy politics that makes the region a volatile one. In fact the focus of the rivalry lies in the Caspian region. It is here that the great game could be played out.

Central Asia and the Great Game

At this juncture it is difficult to predict how the great game would shape up in future, but there is no denying the fact that for the present Russian influence in Central Asia is pervasive. Several factors can explain this phenomenon. At the political level a pertinent point is that these are young democracies, who suddenly found themselves independent in 1991. They are still in the midst of their socio-economic and political transformation. The current leaders were earlier important functionaries during the Soviet period. For them to dismantle the earlier system and build a system based on a liberal polity and a free market economy is not an easy task. Well established democratic precedents, conventions and a political culture are essential, but these are inherently evolutionary in nature and hence require time. It is only in such a milieu that democratic traditions and institutions can flourish. A generation that worked under the Soviet system has still not faded out. Their mindset belongs to the Soviet era. Besides Russians are spread out in all the five Republics and are occupying positions of importance in the power structure. In Kazakhstan for instance, they constitute nearly 32 percent of the population. In such a situation Russian support to any leadership change or key political development in Central Asia would remain crucial. From the long term perspective since the aim of all the Republics is to build open, transparent and democratic societies, Western value systems would ultimately prevail.
In terms of their security requirements the Central Asian Republics are dependent on Russia. They are, except Turkmenistan, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a regional alliance. Russian military presence in Central Asia is substantial. It is a projection of power. The Central Asian Republics are also engaged in furthering defence cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are members of partnership for Peace Programme of NATO. They have welcomed the Western military presence led by the U.S in Afghanistan and have extended all possible help including military and base facilities to the International Coalition Forces. This would certainly give the space for manoeuvrability. However geopolitical compulsions would always weigh in the strategic thinking of Central Asian Republics.
At the socio-cultural level there has been a noticeable upsurge of nationalism after the break up in 1991. In this rising nationalism, language, revival of religion, observance of social customs and practices came to the fore in a forceful manner. The Central Asian Republics began to promote their respective language and elevated it to the status of a national language. However, the pendulum swung back. It was apparent that Russian language had always been an integral part of the socio-cultural milieu. It was the language of inter-ethnic communication. If the people of Central Asia have inculcated a progressive outlook, one of the factors was the modern education imparted in Russian. During the Soviet period the literacy rate was nearly cent per cent. Besides emancipation of women, health, science and technology that came with the Russian settlers in the late nineteenth century have also been contributory factors to the modern outlook of the people of Central Asia. Even after independence the medium of instruction in some schools is Russian, while higher education is imparted only in Russian. There are TV channels and newspapers. Today Russian is recognized as an official language and documents are published in two languages. Most of the migrations that are taking place are either to Russia or Kazakhstan primarily because of language facility and easy adaptability to the cultural ethos of these countries.
The intellectual resources of this region are rich and sound. The younger generation is keen to learn English language, so as to be able to reach out to the wider world. Initially the people who went to the West had difficulty in adjusting to new society and cultural situation. Today the next generation does find cultural dislocation an obstacle. They are slowly imbibing the spirit of democracy and openness. The Kazakh government has initiated the Bolashak (Future) programme under which 3000 students are sent abroad every year for further studies. They go to the West, China, and South East Asia. Kyrgyzstan has also established educational exchanges with other countries in which experiment in international living is given emphasis. Tajikistan could soon follow suit.
One of the distinct aspects of the cultural restoration was the revival of religion. Since a pre-dominant number of people are followers of Islam, mosques, theological seminaries sprang up particularly in the Fergana Valley. Incidentally, the Fergana Valley has always been the strong hold of religion. Religious practices such as celebrating Eid, performing Haj, marriages etc. are being followed with a lot of enthusiasm. This is not to suggest that the people espouse extremist views. Several factors have moulded the liberal, modern and secular outlook of the people. Samarkand and Bukhara were renowned centres of learning where scholars from all over the world flocked. The following remark by a perceptive observer "one hand must hold the Koran and the other the computer" sums up the Central Asian psyche. In fact religious revival is an assertion of their identity; an identity that is different from the Russians. However, religious extremism and international terrorism does exist especially in the Fergana Valley, which straddles Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Rise of extremism is largely because of economic compulsions or external influences. Afghanistan borders the countries of Southern Central Asia. The problem appears to be contained for the present.
At the popular level, in the early years of independence there were social tensions particularly between the Russians and the ethnic communities of the region. Subsequently, pragmatic considerations made the authorities and the people opt for Russian, although even today an undercurrent of tension does prevail. There is a fascination for the West, but there are reservations also after the "coloured" revolutions of 2005. Historical memories make the people to be cautious about China, but heightened Chinese economic interaction and active diplomacy is perceived as beneficial. India is perceived as a friendly country with "no hidden agenda" to pursue in Central Asia, but Indian presence is not commensurate with the friendly feelings it enjoys.

India and Central Asia

There is a fund of goodwill for India that dates back to antiquity. Deep historical and cultural ties bind India and Central Asia. Buddhism, Sufism which came from Central Asia, northern India was part of the silk route, the stretch of the Kushan empire into the region, the Mughals etc. These phases have been part of our common historical experience. But the most amazing phenomenon in the present day is the high popularity of Hindi films. Raj Kapoor is as much of a legend there as he is in India. Songs from his films are hummed with great enthusiasm. On a recent visit to Kyrgyzstan I was asked by a youngster "are you from the land of Raj Kapoor?" What strikes one is that even the younger generation remembers him with such nostalgia. One taxi driver in Tashkent said "his country would be glad to have Shah Rukh Khan", or as someone asked me whether I have shaken hands with Amitabh Bachchan. Even TV serials enjoy high popularity. Probably the pathos, emotion and drama endears Central Asian people to Indian films and serials. A very interesting incident took place in Almaty (Kazakhstan) during my last visit. I was innocently asked by a young Kazakh girl "why was Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi given a Kazakh name?" My jaw nearly fell. The name "Indira" is extremely popular in all the Central Asian Republics. The potentiality to exploit this soft power is tremendous. No other country, except Russia, has been able to occupy the cultural space as yet.
In order to broaden India space, beyond the soft power, it is essential to give a contemporary relevance to our rich and cultural heritage. Several areas of interaction hold promise. Energy is one such area where meaningful cooperation still could be established. Indian presence on the Central Asian energy scene is not as robust as it should be. Part of the explanation lies in lack of India's direct connectivity with the region and partly because multinational companies have already established their presence there, aggressively competing with each other. However, there are areas such as maintenance of pipeline infrastructure, acquisition of assets, equity participation in prospecting fields, exploration and production, participation in downstream projects such as refineries and petrochemicals etc. which have opened by vast opportunity for India. Indian experience in these related areas, its managerial and technical skills could be useful. This would importantly help India to have a presence in Central Asia. India has also shown keenness to join the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) project, which is strongly backed by the US and the Asian Development Bank. It seems the TAP project has been caught in the vortex of the "great game". Gazprom has already signed an agreement with Turkmenistan to buy its natural gas at very favourable price. The question is would Turkmenistan have sufficient gas for TAP project? There is also potential for tapping the hydel power of Tajikistan. It is possible to transport Tajik electricity through high tension wires to northern India via the Wakkan corridor, Northern Areas and Pakistan. This field needs to be explored. Moreover, the liberalization and encouragement to foreign investment especially in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan create an investment friendly climate.
Besides, the Central Asian economies are still in the midst of their transition. At this stage the need is basically for intermediate technologies, which India has in plenty. Indian role in upgrading and modernizing the existing industries, scope for developing agro industries is vast, are areas which hold promise. Given their intellectual resources it would not be difficult for India, for instance, to participate in building steel mills, textiles and textile machinery. In this regard Lakshmi Mittal has done pioneering work by setting up the steel plant at Karagandha in central Kazakhstan.
Another area that holds promise is the possibility of setting up joint ventures in health care, agro industries, harnessing the hydel power, textiles etc. Central Asia has one of the best long stapled cotton. Indian assistance either in setting up textile factories or processing cotton could yield rich dividends to both sides. A favourable development is that Kazakhstan, Russia and India are likely to shortly enter into a Customs Union, this would facilitate the produce of the joint venture to reach Europe.
In Central Asia it is common knowledge that India has emerged as a leading country in Information Technology (IT). In Osh (Southern Kyrgyzstan) young girls were eager to learn how India became a leading country in IT. They were all keen to come to India to learn. NIIT has already set up a centre in Almaty, but the scope for setting up such training Institutes is indeed, vast. However, a common refrain is tardy implementation on the part of India.
India's biggest asset is the knowledge of English language. The younger generation is eager to acquire the skills of English language. Training Institutes can be set up in Central Asia, a vigorous exchange programme would be helpful. The Central Asian Republics would welcome, if India is to set up Institutes on the pattern of Indian Institute of Technology and Indian Institute of Management.
Tourism is a less explored area. For the Indian travellers there are many attractions. The sheer splendour of architectural monuments of Samarkand and Bhukara, the scenic beauty of Tajikistan or travel along the silk route are some of the places worth visiting.
As a functioning democracy in this vast Eurasian region, there is much that the Central Asian Republics can gain from Indian experiment. The scope for India to increase its interaction with Central Asia, its extended neighbourhood, is vast. What is required is vigorous contacts at all levels and an active diplomacy. Is it a tall order?

Professor Nirmala Joshi Director India-Central Asia Foundation New Delhi