Elections, divided government, social fabric hang by a thread and beside all of this turmoil, increased effectiveness of Taliban/Islamists. Pakistan drifted into a serious chaos with General Pervez Musharraf's decline of power. Elections should be seen as a secondary cause to this chaos. Because the climax has been reached with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The climax points out the beginning of a new period. The expectation of Pakistan is initiation of two-staged end.
1. Increase of Islamists' authority and lose of Musharraf ‘s last bits of power
2. The United State's intervention and division of the state
Everybody is asking one question at this point:
What would happen if terrorist get hold of Pakistan's Nuclear power?
Actually, this question can be seen as a justification for military intervention and thus continuously kept on the agenda. Consequently, Pakistan government paved the way for the US military intervention by signing cooperation against terrorism agreement as soon as they got in to the office. The military intervention is said to be done in "consultation" with Pakistan government, the reality is the intervention will be done without any consultation.
The implementation of a new strategy for Pakistan in Washington can be easily asserted. Since 9/11 the US perceived Musharraf and army as the main allies in Pakistan, yet this perception begin to change. The coming events with the agreement is obvious from today:
The US Army will initiate air strikes to those that are suspected asIslamist militants. In time air strikes will transform into limited land operation and just like KFOR, another force (PFOR) will be deployed in Pakistan. Soldiers from other Muslim states will be called to join this force. First state that comes into the mind is Turkey, which has the best relations with Pakistan. Turkey might join the force for various reasons like "bringing stability to brother Pakistan" or "wave the flag out there".
Expecting harsher resistance than in Iraq and Afghanistan from Islamists against the intervention would not be a prophecy. Money would be put into play to curb society's reactions. The "cooperation against terrorism agreement", which is signed between the US and new Pakistan government, shows that the Washington promised to increase of economic aid up to three times of the total of aid in last five years -which is 7 billion dollars-. To what extent economic aid can conceal prospective disorder remains as an unanswerable question at the moment. In this period of time Musharraf, if his presidency will not dropped by a court order, will be pushed aside as an retired general. Army would to be divided into three as Musharraf supporters, Government supporters and Islamists. In this situation, the ownership of the nuclear weapons has the sole importance. Pakistan government would call the US for "help" in order to "prevent Taliban backed Islamists acquiring" nuclear weapons. The time will show how Presidential elections in the US would affect above developments. However, Democrat Presidential candidate Barrack Obama's mention of "military intervention to Pakistan if necessary" gives some hint about whether the US develop new strategy towards Pakistan.
The time is already ticking for Pakistan. After the last drop of the sand, tiny state like Baluchistan or Veziristan (?) might have born out of Pakistan.
However, Pakistan followed a very different route in last nine years. In 1999 when the world is entering new millennium with hope, Pakistan is being affected by economic chaos and serious resource shortcomings. The stable and secure government of General Musharraf, who came to power via military coup, initiated the serious transformation in social, economic and political areas. The Pakistan economy began to rally in 2002; especially between 2004-2005 its GNP increased 8.5% and became the fastest developed state after China, which was the highest rate of development in 20 years . The average per capita income went beyond 700 dollars limit . In the period in which macroeconomic developments positively affected social life, increase especially of literacy rate and registration to schools, enlargement of health services (?), reach of drinking water to wider population, increase of the use of gas and electric, vaccination if children and success of the health precautions taken against diarrhoea were some of the positive reflections of economic development. The increase of foreign currency supplies to all time high 13 billion dollars in April 2005 is pointing a great success .
Despite this successful economic performance, especially in last one year, country went into chaos. The most of the reasons leading to today's situation emanates from foreign-born and supported fundamentalism. Moreover, the state is under the thread of foreign-backed secessionism. The assertion that elections would help elimination of these threads in the long run is impossible to mention today.
At the basis of Pakistan's problems lie the geopolitical significance of the region that the state is in and thus, the significance of becoming nuclear power in its existence struggle with India.

Turkey, in accordance with Pakistan geopolitics, has a special place when similarities and good relations are taken into consideration.
The reciprocity (?) of two countries is related with the existence two states and global powers approach to it. Consequently, similarities between two states can be summarized as:
- Kashmir and Cyprus disputes are the same nature and the West haven't granted the right for self-determination to Turks in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Pakistanis in Kashmir
- Both states are seriously affected by the on going terrorism, Turkey against PKK and Pakistan against terrorism emanating from Baluchistan and Afghanistan
- In both states terrorism is supported by foreign states
- Both states are neighbouring the United States. The on going wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the United States occupation affects both Turkey and Pakistan
- Both states experience difficulties today because of the United States' initial support to terrorist organizations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
- Both states are wanted to be diminished and divided in the American Colonel Ralph Peters' map in "American Armed Forces Journal"
- Both states are neighbouring the next US target Iran and would be affected from a possible attack
- Both states experienced the US arms embargo in various times and probably will experience new ones
The difference between Turkey and Pakistan is that latter is the only Muslim state that has nuclear weapon. Pakistan acquired its nuclear weapons against opposition from the West and especially from the United States with high self-sacrifice. Today, Pakistan's nuclear potential is nit seem to be recognized by the United States, which may cause additional problems in the future. Pakistan has approximately 60-70 nuclear warheads, which some are build with enriched Uranium and some with Plutonium. In other words, it uses nuclear technology multidimensional (?). According to some news, Pakistan would build two nuclear reactors in addition to existing four and increase the number of warheads with the Plutonium acquired from these new reactors . Furthermore, the possession of ballistic and cruise missiles that are capable of delivering nuclear warheads and ability of second strike are also significant factors for Pakistan's nuclear power.
The Course of Events and Struggle of Pakistan
Developments in Pakistan neighbours, especially after the year 1979, are significant. Sovietoccupation of Afghanistan and establishment of Islamic Revolution regime in Iran after ousting of shah made Western powers give special importance to Pakistan and provoke religious or ethnic groups within the state.
After 9/11, in the same manner with Turkey becoming neighbour of the US via Iraq, Pakistan became the neighbour of the US via Afghanistan. Infiltration of Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, who were trained by the US against Soviets, form the north of Pakistan and create problems within the state and the possibility of infiltration to other states via Pakistan caused troubles to the government. The continuation of fundamentalism, which is connected to and supported fromAfghanistan, would create problems for the new government.
Pakistan's Nuclear Power and Fear of the West
The resolve of Pakistan's problems, which are emanating from the geopolitically problematic region and on the top of those problems with India, in short period of time by the newly elected government would be unrealistic. Although, Armed Forces have withdrawn from politics to a large extent and new Chief of Staff Ashfaq Pervez Kayani stated that he wouldn't pressure any politician, Pakistan Armed Forces will have its say on critical issues such as terrorism and relations with the US.
Pakistan Armed Forces resolutely stand against the foreign control of Pakistan's nuclear power, which has been approach and presented as a nightmare by Bush administration, and persistently continues to state this stance.
Western powers are afraid of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and technology falling unto wrong hands, and those wrong hands are obviously Al-Qaeda and Taliban. Furthermore;
- Situation that the new government would fall after the political developments and radical groups become effective through another government power,
- Possibility of undesirable people or groups taking control of and direct nuclear program as they please after elimination or assassination of key people in the program,
- Transfer of nuclear studies and technologies to undesirable states, people and groups by technocrats working in the program, makes the West feel unsettle.
The stress on the safety of nuclear weapons seems to ease down with the US new Chief of Staff Mike Mullen's statement that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure after meeting with Musharraf and Kayani in February 2008 .
New Elements of Taliban Radicalism and Effect on Pakistan
The transformation of Afghanistan-born Taliban, which is increasingly affecting Pakistan and establishes a support base in the country, started to gain some strength from the transformation. The issue that has been detected by Western intelligence and confirmed by Pakistani authorities is the enlistment of thousands of foreign militants to Taliban. The significant amounts of the militants in Afghanistan come from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, China, various Arab states and Russia, and thus this transformation will affect Pakistan. At the beginning, Taliban is mostly composed of Afghans, who are drug dealers, opium producers and either tired of or religiously opposed to the US occupation. The foreigners, who bring novel armed strategies, added a new dimension to Taliban. Consequently, this new developments and strengthening of Taliban aided by new forces in Pakistan's Tribes Region, thus reached a point where Taliban could affect all Pakistan.
Western observers in the region state that foreigners, which are mostly young radicals, have began to fill up the mid-level leadership post left void by the decrease of Afghan leader because of various reasons.
Above developments in Afghanistan also appears, to some extend, in Pakistan. Foreign elements started to finance young Taliban leaders in Tribes Region and thus the power of older and Pakistani Taliban leaders, who are settled near Ketta city, diminishes. The reports state that leadership of Taliban is getting younger and fighting tactics are changing. Consequently, terrorism in the northwest of Pakistan and fundamentalist developments started to take control of the country with their new dynamism. On the other hand, anti-terrorist tactics are questioned in the name of democracy. Moreover, the decision to free terrorist by court order causes especially Pakistan security forces and administrator to distress and hesitate. The decisions of the Pakistan High Court tied hands of the administration as well as caused anxiety within the society and became a serious problem that should be solved. Because of above reasons, President Musharraf declared martial law and pushed country into a turmoil.
Latest Development in the Democracy and Future of the Country
Another reason for the declaration of martial law, which was considered to repair weaknesses in security and to act as a safety valve against the negative affects of court orders on the administration, is the assertion that Pakistan's Constitution is inadequate in stopping the situation that country is in and foreign supported events. Because of this reason and the pressures for the civilian rule, Pakistan had elections on February 2008. Results appear to be covering problems for now.
Already the name-calling has started by tagging former Head of the Parliament Yusuf Riza Gilani as "custodian Prime Minister", which is a sign for "eventful days that are ahead of Pakistan's political life". Because, Zedari, who is the leader of Pakistan PeoplesParty, did not enter to 18 February election. The expectation is thatZedari will enter to by-election and in case of getting elected; he will take over Prime Ministry.
Another important point is Asif Ali Zedari and Navaz Serif's statements that they will hold meetings with fundamentalist groups . Consequently, the new government should isolate President Pervez Musharraf, who would not make concession. This can be realized through an agreement within the coalition.
Prospective problems between new government and President Musharraf would increase possibility of the US intervention to Pakistan, which became unstable and sink deep into the violence after the US occupation of Afghanistan. The claim that Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan can became a justification for the US intervention.
Chinese Factor
The future of Pakistan remains uncertain, yet country's strategic significance and regional location is noticed by big powers, especially Pakistan's ally China. While Western powers put their soft power and non-governmental organizations in to play for the "democracy", China-Pakistan relations remained unchanged in this critical period and cooperation of two states continued against all odds. China, which has serious military relations with Pakistan, employs wait-and-see strategy and carefully observes actions of other actors and especially the US, which want direct or indirect intervention to Pakistan. The truth is China would not want to lose its historical influence and economic benefits to Western powers. Thus, China is the only serious support that Pakistan could depend against those, who are disturbed by the Pakistan's nuclear power and want to pacify it.
Pakistan Armed Forces appears to be institution that could rescue Pakistan, which has civilian government but the problems requires the use of force, rather than fragile and desultory political parties, for now. However, in case of various groups in the Army cannot reach a consensus and unite, a more complicated process is awaiting Pakistan.

Endnotes
I) National Bank of Pakistan Publication "Annual Reports" http://www.nbp.com.pk/An_Report.htm
II) ibid
III) ibid
IV) Peters, Ralph "Blood Borders: How a Better Middle East would look" Armed Forces Journal (June 2006) http://www.afji.com/2006/06/1833899/
V) Federation of American Scientist Website. "Pakistan Nuclear Weapons: A Brief History of Pakistan's Nuclear Program" http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/
VI) Warrick, Josh "Pakistan Expanding Nuclear Program" Washington Post 24 July 2006 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/23/AR200607...
VII) Birsel, Robert "U.S. Official says Pakistan's atomic weapons safe" Reuters 9 February 2008 http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN0265048020080209
VIII) Schmitt, Eric and Mazzetti, Mark "Pakistan's Planned Accord with Militants Alarms U.S." The New York Times 30 April 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/washington/30policy.html?ref=asia