Turkey's steps should not be understood as the first pebble falling onto wavy international water. These are seen as suspicious and worrying steps for the Western World. They are signals of a new world for the Eastern World. Turkey's movements which are contemplated by West carefully and reacted against points out a falling apart:

1) Exchange treaty with Iran.
2) Rising tension because of Israel's murder of innocent Turkish Citizens in open seas.
3) Turkey's rejection of sanctions upon Iran in UN Security Council.
4) Signing of Middle East Union treaty between Turkey, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
5) Turkey's periodical presidency of CICA.
6) Signing of a comprehensive energy treaty with Russia.

Historical Background

Turkey's new positioning which is called as changing of axis was actually started in the beginning of the 90s. Turkey was searching for a new direction when it was faced with bloody terror actions. NATO was not supporting its member Turkey about Turkey's most important security problem. On the other hand Europe was the base for anti-Turkey terrorist activities. Turkey could only receive Leopard tanks which cost billions of dollars with the condition of not using the tanks in the conflict zone. The most powerful financial formations of terrorist organization were established in Europe. Ankara analyzed those issues and saw the collapse of Soviet Union as an opportunity and Turkey got closer to Russia. Armament Treaty which was signed between Turkey and Russia was the first agreement which was signed between a NATO member and Moscow in 1992. The backbone of Turkey - West alliance was US and the basis of this alliance was Turkish Army. The first step towards the falling apart was taken by Turkish Generals with this movement.

In 1997, this time Turkey created a new window with "region centered foreign policy". With this definition which was taken into the government agenda, Turkey was giving the signals of a new way: having regional policies on the basis of good relations with neighbors [1]. Economic Crisises in 1995 and 1996 were directed Turkey towards this way of understanding.

Washington tried to use the EU card to change this situation. After the high pressure upon Turkey, Turkey was pushed into the EU tunnel. Ankara was relieving itself by seeing itself as the balancing element for EU against US. Washington was aware of its role of holding the ropes. First break to the regional based foreign policy was started.

In 2002, US plan of invading Iraq through Turkey was rejected by Turkey and this was a reasonable action. Resistance of Ankara was took the regional policy into the agenda again. This situation may be related to huge change in Turkish politics and quick rising of Erdogan. Erdogan government gave up the regional policy in their first period of power. Concrete evidences of this policy were Erdogan's high interest to EU and his support to US invasion of Iraq through Turkey.

Path of Erdogan

While US prestige was shaken between 2002 and 2007 among the world Turkey became a country in which anti-Americanism is mostly spread. An ally of NATO for half a century and a secular democracy stepped forward among the Islamic Countries. This situation can only be explained by one word: disappointment.[2] This disappointment influences the Turkish Society's attitude towards EU. While in EU countries, rate of people who believe in Turkey's membership to EU is %54, in Turkey this rate is %28.[3]

Turkey feels betrayed by the countries which are assumed to be its allies for many years. Turkish Government implicates that the fact behind the rise of terrorism in Turkey is US, EU and Israel. It should not be forgotten that, Erdogan had never gained power from well designed foreign policies but his power derives from his emotional attitude towards the people. His movements nothing more than this.

What is Next?

World is not like old times and Turkey is aware of this. While Turkey is getting away from its old fears, it also faces them off. From now on a person cannot introduce another person as a monster while they are eating hamburger together. Turkish people are exploring their position again. It is natural that politicians are getting used to this changing concepts because keeping their power is more important than changing their policies. While all these happening, opinions of Turks are consistent.

Turks are aware of that Western systems are collapsing and new powers rising in East will shape the new world. In this inevitable process, historical relations stepping forward instead of artificial interests. This is the correct approach.

Turks are believing that from now on Turkey does not need US, US needs Turkey. Ankara's fear of having a punishment because of Turkey's policies towards Israel and Iran aims to shake this confidence. Increasing terrorist attacks, Iraq(Lands invaded by US) oriented attacks, EU's approach of seeing Turks as other falls Turkey apart from the NATO. Turkey will be shifted through a direction in which nationalism will rise. It is inevitable that Turkey will fall apart from EU before NATO. Obstacles raised by EU to Turkey may cause this result in the short term. In the middle term, Turkey will cut the negotiations with Brussels and Turkey will have strategic alliances with European Countries (Germany, Italy) separately.

In a situation like that Turkey's relations with Washington will be changed too. Turks will have Middle East and Central Asia policies independent of US and while doing this Turkey will have alliances with Russia and Iran. Security dimension of these alliances will determine the NATO - Turkey relations. An Asian Union which is based on tough principles will easily replace NATO for Turkey.

Russia and Iraq will be the biggest economic allies of Turkey instead of Europe. This kind of a economic alliance will prevent the use of PKK as a element of pressure against Turkey.

Europe which is trying to hide behind the medieval walls will get smaller if it does not poison itself like a scorpion. Great Chinese Wall was built for protecting China from the Turkish attacks which might come from central Asia. This time, Turkey which does not have a membership to EU will be a wall among Europe and Asia, not a bridge.

While all these achievement are going on, Erdogan will become an old figure for Turkish Politics. Thus Turkey's tendency towards east is more than Erdogan's Islamic roots. Just like said in a old Arabic idiom: one bowl of fresh water is better than a bucket of dirty water.

[1] Bulent ECEVIT; The New Turkey Magazine, MARC-APRIL 1995
[2] The Pew Research Center; Global Image for USA, 17 June 2010 Chapter 7
[3] GMF; Transatlantic Trends 2009