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I Did It My Way

October, 2010

Turkey managed by Erdogan is in a big change. The last step of this change was Refer on September 12,that was seen with suspicion by every two person in the country. The constitution amendments of 1983,product of a military coup in September 12 1980,were rated with an historical irony in September 12 2010. Erdogan left from this election with a great victory just as in the 2007 elections. The 58 percent of voters approved the constitutional amendments of Erdogan. However,the rate of 42 percent put forth that Turkey's half of the population is concerned against Erdogan.BDP,the political arm of the PKK,made a boycott decision and in southeastern provinces largely complied with this decision.It caused the comments like ''Turkey was divided into three parts ''. In terms of the results of the Refer,the possible next steps to be taken as projections and the results should be read as the following:

1-PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
The parliamentary elections will be held in Turkey 10 monts later.Until these elections,Erdogan's power protection should be expected. But the process until the elections,the expectation of constitutional amendment has increased. This expectation is decisive about the Kurdish problem and the terror. If Erdogan administration doesn't bring up a prepatory for constitutional amendments that include the Kurds,PKK that declared a truce will begin his attacks again. Thus,in a media that Erdogan's nationalism will arise,it will plan to block votes from the western provinces. Erdogan feels it as a threat on his neck. Immediately after Refer,Ministers had negotiations with BDP and this should be perceived as an indicator.

2-PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM
Turkey's secular and statist structure that based on seperation of forces,seems to be suffered to significiant erosion in 8 years under Erdogan's management.The results of the Refer has given a great opportunity to Erdogan on this issue. There is a possibility of Erdogan's being in the lurch because of the constitutional steps for this opportunity and this shouldn't be secluded. Because,if he reduce the constitutional amendment to the presidential system,he may face to a social response. However Erdogan became stronger as a leader that has great evaulated the opportunities up till now. At this stage,he will present the constitutional guarantee to Kurds by reconsiling into presidential system.

3-AUTONOMY AND TERRORISM
The Kurdish party BDP,announced their autonomy demand with a formal language for the first time before the Refer. Fulfillment of this request,will be an impossible step for Erdogan before the elections. BDP-PKK is aware of that. But they want to use elections as an opportunity. In the first week of September, the leaders of the BDP and PKK,terrorist organizaton in northern Iraq,had a negotiation together about the strategy of Refer and after Refer,in the city of Sulaymaniyah that is in border of Iran-Iraq. According to the steps taken by Erdogan,PKK truce will lay down arms or their attacks will begin again. The position that was protected till today between Erdogan-PKK has impaired as a result of Erdogan's negotiation with BDP about autonomy. Following this negotiation,the imprisoned leader gave an instruction of '' Leave the areas that is high likelihood to facing the soldiers ''.And PKK's armed elements had largely complied to this instruction. Turkish Minister of Interior went to Erbil to discuss this issue with Regional Government of Northern Iraq in September 26 and this was at a critical stage. This issue remains as three-legged bargain:
- PKK's (despite the truce) being in Turkey increases the risk of conflict.
- Any conflict removes the expectations of BDP-PKK autonomy and Erdogan's promise of a new constitution.
- Thus,the two sides will lose the base before the elections.
4- TURKEY-EU
Turkey,now gets free of a country that makes a reform with the expectation of EU. In Turkey,while the support to EU is in the lower level in history,the steps taken by cooperation with east are supported by people. Erdogan is aware of this and takes his steps according to this. The recent developments between Turkey-EU relations are as the following:
- Additional Protocol's not being applied and the titles that couldn't be opened.
- The court of England's decision about Oram's lawsuit (In Cyprus,Greek courts' decisions about TRNC will be recognised by the European Union and the dominance of the Cypriot Greek will spread to the north as legal for the first time.)
- The decision was adopted with 60 votes against 11 abstentors in EP Foreign Affairs Committee.Written by Dutch Christion Democrat Ria Oomen -Ruijten,the decision takes place in the Draft Decision of Turkey's Report.It invites to pull Turkey's troops from the island immediately and without waiting for the decision,it invites to open Maras region to the Greeks.
- It put forths South Cyprus' thread of veto.
- In Turkish business world,the sound has been increasing who want to change the Customs Union between EU and Turkey. Erdogan has the power to redirect these segments as he desires. The reason of this is the new possibilities of countries like Iraq,Russia next to the difficulties of the EU countries issued to Turkish business world. Turkish business world is turning towards to the east with Erdogan. While the decision of EU council in 26 April 2004 about TRNC isolation's removing hasn't actualized yet,it is completely contrary to international law demanding Additional Protocol from Turkey.
HIS WAY
Turkey's Atlantic bloc,consists of US-NATO-EU and relations with others are redefined. Turkish people sees their relations with the west as '' One sided dependency''. Erdogan has created a dominance over the middle and bottom class with his flexible policy that is in accordance. The last Refer rivetted this dominance. More important than this,Erdogan himself made his way. Though he has a few regrets on his own,he actually sees little worth to express. He planned all his works,with careful steps along the byway. Yes,he had time.He destroyed them all,finished.There were tears during the Refer,while giving examples about military coups. He found it entertaining when they were so low.Just as in the song;'' I did it my way ''.
[1]. Taraf 09.26.2010
[2]. German Marshal Found Transatlantic Trends 2010

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