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Illicitus Malum-i

September, 2010

Seeds of forbidden love are sprouting in the Middle East.Sides are so worried about each other that when the one will trick.What we mean indicates a situation that is the further side of an ordinary togetherness.Because Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and king of Saudi Arabia  Abdullah,after coming together in Damascus,organized a visit to the Beirut that is the capital of Lebanon.When it is taken into consideration that Damascus and Riyadh are flirting with Tehran,there are three elements that make this visit important.

 

1- Saudi Arabia King's arriving to Lebanon after 53 years and also Bashar al-Assad arriving to Lebanon after tooking his Syrian troops from the country in 2005.

 

2- Saudi Arabie and Syria are the countries that have a direct influence over Lebanon.The leaders of this two country had gone to Beirut together and this carries an important clues for Lebanon's future and stability.

 

3- Timing is important.Special Tribunal for Lebanon that was formed for the old Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination will soon explain the first indictment.According to the newspapers,in the indictment,members of Hezbollah will be shown in connection with assassination.In this case,senior members of organization will be called to the court for testifying and this will come as current issue. Leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah expressed strictly that they won't conform to such a wish.So,this indictment will disrupt the ongoing stability that has been continueing since the 2008 Doha Accord in the country.A visit carried out before the indictment's disclosure and because of this,it has critical importance of timing.

 

THE TWO POLE

 

In the political struggle in Lebanon,Syria and Saudi Arabia represents the two different poles.March 14 Alliance that is formed with Lebanese Sunnis and still in political power,is supported by Saudi Arabia with financial and political support.Opponent March 8 Alliance that has The Shiite Hezbollah organization,is supported by Iran and Syria.But Syria's position is different from Iran.First and foremost,Syria has no ideological partnership with Hezbollah.Hezbollah is an organization that is ideologically cherished from Iran and largely receive support but also needs Syria for this support.From this point,it will be correct to define that Syrian-Hezbollah alliance is not strategic but tactical alliance.Being anti-Israel stance combines sides together.It is partly true seeing that Hezbullah is a strategic extension of Iran in Lebanon.While Iran is only in a relationship with Shiite communities and parties,Syria succeeded to find close allies for him among all religious and sectarian groups when he was the most active force in Lebanon. in the process of Syrian troops' withdrawal,everybody sides with anti-Syrian side except for Shiites and some of Christian groups and that caused troubles with these groups.After Israel-Lebanon War in 2006,Syria and Saudi Arabia relations were spoiled and that caused Syria being on strained terms with these groups much more.The strained relationship between Saudi Arabia and Syria directly affected stability of Lebanon.Lebanon have been spending a calm period for nearly two years and behind of this,mutually visits of Syria and Saudi Arabia for repairing their broken relationships is standing.It can be interpreted that the leaders of two countries' regulating a visit to Beirut will hold Lebanon's tension lower

 

INCREASING POLITICAL TENSION WITH IRAN

 

 

Hezbollah's getting strong is disturbing from Syria's point of view.Syria has a perspective that seems like contradictory but rational about Hezbollah.Syria has been supporting Hezbollah for many years.The balance of power in Lebanon was completely in favor of Syria.Because of this,Hezbollah was an important tool of foreign policy in Syria's fight against Israel.However,in 2005,after Syria's withdrawing of troops in Lebanon,balances have begun to change in favor of Hezbollah.Instead of Lebanese army,Hezbollah filled the emptiness that Syria ledt.In other word,Iran.

Lebanon became a country of Iran's activity area. Even though Syria is in cooperation with Iran and Hezbollah,it is seeking to restore its position in Lebanon.On the other hand,there is no doubt that The United States and Israel are worried about Iran's growing influence. Iran acquired  nuclear weapons. Via Hezbollah they are against Israel borders and this is an unacceptable situation for USA and Israel.Viewed from this perspective,Syria and Israel have common anxieties even if there are different reasons.This can bring an unnamed agreement between sides as in 1976 year.Also Saudi Arabia takes place in this agreement.Saudi Arabia comes at the beginning of the countries that are anxiety about Iran's spreading of this activity in the Middle East,on the basis of Shiism.Syria is the only force that can control Lebanon against Hezbollah and Iran with these reasons that are against Hezbollah.It is possible to read that common Beirut visit of Saudi Arabia and Syria leaders is beginning of this period.

 

RETURNING OF DAMASCUS

 

Developments are experienced about Lebanon's being turned over to Syria activity. Druze leader Velit Canpolat, known with his anti-Syria stance has been coming together with Bashar Assad in Damascus and he shows a sharp turn from his anti-Syrian rhetoric in recent years. Finally,a visit that came true with Saudi Arabia leader,has an importance of supporting this indictment.A claim of Hezbollah being in connection with the assassination,first time took place in the German magazine named Der Spiegel before parliamentary election of Lebanon in 2009.If a blame that is said to influence the election in that period,takes places in indictment of court,an event will receive formal qualification and senior Hezbollah members will be summoned as a suspect to the law court.Hezbollah had clearly stated from the mouth of his leader Nasrallah that he would be against this.Thus,a new crisis between the international community and organization will occur.The most important result of the potential crisis is the instability may appear in Lebanon.Even a new but narrow civil war.It is possible to say that crisis will occur depending on two reasons. This polarization will bring the risk of armed conflict as on May 7,2008.The second;Hezbollah may try to give a message to the West,by using his military power ; '' if you come on me,Lebanon's instability will be the end of this. '' In fact,this will be a message that Iran gives to Arabs. This two reason raises the possibility of instability that based on Hezbullah in Lebanon.This can be interpreted as an effort of Saudi Arabia and Syria leaders' visit of Beirut to reduce a tension and to prevent a possible conflict in Lebanon.The first fruit of forbidden love is;increasing efficiency of communication in Lebanon.

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