Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province, with its population of 21 million, is in every aspect a bridge between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This region is also known as the "Tribal Area" and, as the name suggests, it is ruled by tribes, where Pakistan's laws have never been valid. In the past, here, where the Pashtuns live, only laws governed by the elders were authoritative in the region; since 2001 though, with its significant influx the Taliban influence has also proportionately increased. Tribal leaders, who share the same lineage and similar approach to religion, protected the Taliban when they were forced to take refuge in the Tribal Areas during Afghanistan's war against the Soviets. Today the protection continues in accordance with this traditional "hospitality". It can therefore be asserted that financial help is included in the motivation for this protection. Through various economic, social and religious factors, the Taliban is showing an increasing control in the region and has even from time-to-time been known to further its influence even in big cities like Peshawar. The Tribal Areas' relationship with radical religious groups like the Taliban does not end here. It was in the Hayatabad suburb of Peshawar, where Osama Bin Laden laid the foundations of the Al Qaeda Organisation in 1988. Ironically for Pakistan, which has lost thousands of soldiers and policemen in the fight against radical religious groups, this fundamentalist group had been established with the support and protection of the Pakistan Secret Service and other state institutions for the Afghans' war against the Soviets.
Some say that the Pakistan Armed Forces, which is highly politicised, was instrumental in the Taliban's increasing strength in Pakistan, where the government has lost its power and control over the region. Although the army fought hard against the root of terrorism and fundamentalism, according to foreign experts, the army's fight against terrorism has been undermined by concessions given by politicians to certain groups and the help given by elements of the Pakistani Intelligence Agency to fundamentalists.
At this point we need to consider foreign powers which would like to weaken or even facilitate the disintegration of Pakistan. In particular, it is known that India fuels every conflict, including that of the separatist Baluchis. The United States' policy on Pakistan obviously does not inspire confidence either. Lately, we have even heard threatening statements being made by some American politicians against Pakistan. It is known that the Afghanistan government does not behave friendly towards Pakistan and blames Pakistan for the Taliban issue. Afghans continuously assert that Pakistan is not using enough military force against the Taliban and Al Qaeda and cannot control the border. However, when we consider that even the big powers such as NATO and the US are not succeeding in Afghanistan, is it arguable to expect Pakistan to control thousands of kilometres of steep rugged mountain border? Moreover, NATO and the US are themselves day by day losing the war in Afghanistan. Today, Afghanistan is in such a state that some days the numbers of NATO and US soldiers that are killed by the Taliban is the same or exceeds the number killed in Iraq. This is because the Taliban has recently launched a major offensive both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Level of the Regional War

In the past, the Taliban only focused its attacks on one side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, but now mounts attacks simultaneously on both sides of the border. It is especially significant that these simultaneous attacks started at the beginning of summer. This is seen as a strategic decision taken by the Taliban where, on the one hand, there is a weak government in Pakistan and Afghanistan and on the other, the approaching presidential elections in the US. Apart from the elections, the Taliban thinks that the current US President cannot focus on the region just before leaving office while tensions with Iran are rising. Therefore there is an assumption by the Taliban that the US cannot intervene in the region until next spring at the earliest which has caused the increase in the Taliban attacks.
There may be a vital goal that exists within the Taliban's strategy. This goal will be the most significant step towards regaining control over the country. That is controlling certain cities or regions and forcing some NATO forces to withdraw from Afghanistan. In the same manner, on the other side of the border, it is known that the Taliban both wants to give a show of strength to the Pakistani people and aims to provide freedom of movement and shelter to the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces in the Tribal Areas by controlling certain parts of the region.
Another significant development is that the Taliban and Al Qaeda have furnished Pashtun leaders with financial support and have even modernised their militia forces. We need at this point to emphasise that Pakistani officials have stated that the US had focused all their attention on Al Qaeda after 2001 and neglected the Taliban. Further to this, the US has forsaken showing any serious force in Afghanistan since 2002 and the invasion of Iraq and is not making a concentrated effort for the development and reconstruction of the country. As a result of these factors the Taliban is on the rise in Afghanistan. Naturally, an increase in the Afghan-Taliban strength results in an increase in the Pakistan-Taliban strength.

Other Problems of Pakistan

Besides the important geopolitical location of Pakistan, it is the only nuclear Muslim state. Although the US from time-to-time state that nuclear weapons might fall into the hands of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, foreign experts assert that the military hierarchy and discipline of the Pakistan Armed Forces would never allow such a situation to arise.
Pervez Musharraf's rule in Pakistan, which started in 1999, ended with the electoral victory of predominantly secular parties in February 2008. The success of Nawaz Sharif's and Benazir Bhutto's husband's parties is a strong indication that the Pakistani people are against fundamentalism and military rule. However it will be very difficult for the new government to be successful. Although the country made significant economic progress through various initiatives and continuously increased its GDP for many years during Musharraf's rule, politically, the same progress cannot be observed. Particularly, the constitutional problems left behind by Musharraf still require a solution, especially when it still cannot be said that the new civilian government has taken charge of Foreign policy. This has given rise to speculation that Pakistan's problematic relations with India and Afghanistan are still conducted by the army.
All of these problems cause opposition and disagreements within the civilian government resulting in a weakness in focusing on the fight against fundamentalism. While foreign constructed multi-level problems continue, Pakistan's focus on issues like its rightful claim in resolving the Kashmir dispute in the international community has declined.

Conclusion

Whilst the Americans are in consideration of their long term interests in Central Asia, they do not seem to be disturbed by the situation of their continued struggle in the messy swamp of Afghanistan and instead, all we hear is the continual excuse from the statements made by officials that "Pakistan" is the reason for their failure in Afghanistan. In fact, while they may blame Pakistan, we can say that they are more than likely keeping the door open for possible intervention if needed within Pakistan. Most recently the forced resignation of President Musharraf on the 18th August by the coalition government means that the likelihood of interference in Pakistan's internal affairs will significantly increase. Despite the world's media portraying Musharraf as an American advocate, forcing the departure of a leader with many years of experience at a time when Pakistan is faced with such serious problems is undoubtedly the work of inexperienced politicians and will no doubt result in new and ever increasing problems arising. This is because it is plain for all to see the variation of problems that Pakistan has to overcome. Problems like the ongoing strained relations with India, the Kashmir problem, the Beluchi separatist movement in Western Pakistan, economic difficulties, being the only Muslim country to possess nuclear weapons and the anxiety this raises with the Americans with their continual attempts to control Pakistan together with the internal increase of activity from the Taliban and fundamentalist elements and their connection with Afghanistan. All of these pieces join together to form the major problems faced by Pakistan. The absence of an experienced President at a time when relations with Afghanistan are particularly strained and when the Americans rather than helping the situation are clearly standing on the side of Afghanistan and searching for a reason to interfere with Pakistan's internal affairs is a serious loss and will be keenly felt by such a strategically important country.

Vice Chairman of National Security Strategies Research Centre - TUSAM