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Palestine: Hamas vs. Al-Qaeda

January, 2009

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniye described Israel's attacks on Gaza as a "Furkan War". In Arabic "Furkan" means to differ and differentiate between what is good and what is evil; and is also used to describe miracles or events that help resolve outstanding problems. Speaking to Gaza on the 5th day of Israeli attacks, Haniye used the expression to emphasize that the situation in Gaza before and after the war would be starkly different. Doubtless, this is meant to send a message to Ebu Mazen (Mahmood Abbas) and the Arab world, as well as serve as a harsh condemnation of Israeli aggression.
The 25th Sura, or chapter, of the Koran, is the ‘Furkan' Sura, and offers warning on various issues. Composed of 77 verses, it describes in the following verses the fate of those that do not obey the will of God:
35- We gave Moses the Book, and placed Aaron alongside him as a helpmate.
36- We said: "Go off to a folk who have denied Our signs." We utterly destroyed them!
37- So when Noah's folk rejected the messengers, We let them drown and set them up as a sign for mankind. We reserve painful torment for wrongdoers.
The Torah warns Israelites against injustice and cruelty: "Ye shall do no unrighteousness in judgment ... Thy shall not take vengeance ... thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself" (Leviticus, Chapter 19, 15 -18).
Viewing conflicts in the Middle East, and particularly the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, through the lens of religion serves only to exasperate tensions and stir-up historical grievances. But for those who claim to fight in the name of religion, the above verses, and many more like them, are proof of the hypocrisy of their actions. Israel wants to wipe out its neighbour Hamas and is doing so in a politically-motivated and systematic way.

Since 2006, it has been pursuing contradictory policies towards Hamas as evidenced by the following Israeli moves:
Accepted Hamas as just another political party in elections;
Declared Hamas, which won the elections, as "terrorist organization";
Fomented Al Fatah and Hamas split by declaring Al Fatah as its formal counterpart in the Palestinian territories;
Besieged Gaza;
Initiated the current Gaza operation after partial stability was sustained in Iraq and following the agreement on the withdrawal of U.S. troops was ratified.

There is still a possibility that Israel's next step may be to initiate a more comprehensive operation than the 33 days war in 2006 against Hezbollah. Israel, which learned its lesson from the operation in Lebanon which resulted in its defeat, is preparing for a short and systemic air campaign against Hezbollah. Hamas represents Syria and Hezbollah represents Iran. Only after settling with these two armed groups will Israel accept entering into negotiations with the Palestinians. Substantive negotiations may start after the war, but anticipating an Israeli ceasefire is an empty hope at this point, and that the Cairo negotiations have faltered is early proof. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are aware of this. To better understand how the cards will ultimately be dealt, it is necessary to instead look ahead at the post-war environment.
The Middle East quagmire will evolve in different directions after Israel's latest attacks. After the dust settles in Gaza, we will face the naked truth. The proposal package that will be brought to the negotiation table will provide a more clear illustration of what the short and long term goals of the war were. Israel's Gaza and Hezbollah attacks may cause the following end-results:

A deepening split between Hamas and Al Fatah;
Splinter radical groups emerging out of Hamas;
Al Qaeda's emergence in Palestine to fill the gap in the absence of Hamas;
Rising Al Qaeda influence on Palestinian populations in Jordan and Egypt.

The Arab world is divided between moderates and radicals. Egypt, like Al Fatah, is watching the developments closely. Realistically speaking, current diplomatic efforts are geared more towards preparing for the post-war negotiations, than any genuine possibility of an immediate ceasefire. Calls by the Arab Union or Islam Conference Organization's for an "emergency meeting" days after the Israeli attacks demonstrates their position that Hamas has no place at the negotiating table. But this is where the danger lies: leaving out Palestine's elected leaders and their supporters out of the peace process. Brushing Hamas aside or wiping it out completely will result in an enormous power gap-thereby paving the way for Al-Qaeda to move in.
Moreover, Al-Qaeda would not limit its infiltration to Palestine. Jordan, Egypt and Iraq would also be included. The insurgencies in Iraq's Al Ambar region, which neighbors the Palestinian refugee camps in Jordan are important from this view. With the withdrawal of American troops from the region, groups close to Al-Qaeda could tighten their grip on the region. Mimicking the hostile border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the region could become a so called ‘self-liberated' and lawless peripheral region, detached from the center, under the organized rule of militias, and where Sharia rules would be applied in the most radical way. That they could potentially then establish ties with Palestinian camps in Jordan from here is not difficult to fathom.
The same scenario is also applicable for Egypt and Syria. Cells of the Izzedine Al- Qassam Brigades in Syria and Lebanon can easily move into Al-Qaeda's orbit in a short time. The Israeli attacks are preparing the necessary conditions for this to happen. Consequently, global jihad will have reached a new depth by taking the Palestine struggle into its own fold.
Early indications pointed to Egypt and Jordan's unwillingness to invite Hamas to the negotiation table. Withdrawing from indirect negotiations mediated by Turkey, Syria may not close the doors to a new negotiation process. The main topic of the negotiations are likely to include possibilities for territorial exchange and negotiations would include Egypt, Jordan and Syria. For Israel, sticking points would be border security, the status of Jerusalem and the Jewish settlements. Having "gotten rid of Hamas", Israel would be more willing to grant some territories in return for keeping settlements in West Bank. Israel could leave villages and cities like Ummu'l Fahm, Are Valley, Tiba, Tira and Kefer Kasim to Palestine in return for keeping Jewish settlements like Ariel, Ghosh, Atsion and Meale Ademin in the West Bank. This plan was actually included in the proposals of former Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu's advisor Uzi Aradi. Territory exchange between Syria, Jordan and Israel were also part of the same proposals. Israel could give the city of Arad to Syria in return for keeping 280 km2 of territory (this includes passages to the Golan settlements, water resources and Seyh Mountain).
Ummu'l Fahm is on the contiguous and fertile land north of West Bank. Moreover, it was the headquarters of the Islamic Movement, headed by Rasih Salah in 1948, which is a historically important for Arabs. Territory exchange would result in significant changes in the West Bank. In return for Jewish settlements in the West Bank (accounting for 3% of the territory), the territories of 1948 would be given back. Territories to the south of the Dead Sea could be given to Jordan. If so, then the connection between El Ambar and Palestine would be established.
Former Israeli National Security advisor General Giora Eiland proposed a second plan in 2006. According to this plan, Palestinian settlements would be established in the El Agvar region of Jordan and in 500-600 km2 land area of Egypt's North Sinai. In return, some territory from West Nakap and 100 km2 of territory from south of the Dead Sea would be given to Jordan. The days ahead may bring a resurgent Egypt pursuing a more active regional and international policy, and keen on swallowing Gaza . Maybe we have already entered that period.
Today's Jordan was previously Palestine under the British mandate. While the British were withdrawing, a new state was drawn up with a ruler and a pen. Almost a century later, we may be facing the Palestinification of Jordan. The connection from Iraq to Jordan would mean more troubles for Israel. We do not know to what extent warnings in the Koran and the Torah would be heeded. But today, the fate of the Middle East will be no different than the unfortunate convicts in Roman times, waiting to be pushed off a steep cliff from the Tarbi Rock.

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