Around the problem of Russia's membership in NATO there has been a certain informational cloud that is periodically added with "hot" information which causes turbulence in mass-media during the last two decades. The next summit of the Alliance in Lisbon became such informational trigger.
Recollecting the recent history of this issue it is necessary to note that in December, 1991 Russian president B.Yeltsin sent a letter to the NATO headquarters telling that in future Russia would like to become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. Successor of Boris Yeltsin on the post of the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin during his first presidential term was also hinting at probable introduction of Russia to the Alliance. However, later there was some cooling in relations with the West, and thus the topic was left behind the scenes of the world politics.
Nevertheless, «verbal optimism of reboot» has not run out. The chain of informational influences on the «Russia - NATO» line was unexpectedly reanimated. In February of this year the Institute of Modern Development - an influential Russian analytical center with president Dmitry Medvedev as a member of the board of trustees, published a report on the future of Russia. It predicts, in particular, that our country will gradually join NATO.
Tracking the chronology of events in this area the participation of NATO troops in parade on the Red Square in Moscow in May, 9 this year should be noted. It is natural that the presence of former enemy that in a moment transformed to a "partner" had caused aversion among veterans and public patriotic organizations which consider expansion of NATO to the East as a threat to Russian national safety. Since then «the informational cloud» around Russia's joining NATO has condensed confidently. Thus, I. Jurgens, the moderator of global safety section at September forumin Yaroslavl, has openly called to Russia's joining the North Atlantic Alliance. It means that in Russian liberal circles there are supporters of rapproachement with the Alliance for closer binding between Russia and the West. Russian experts suspect that the chain of synchronized informational influences on Russia - NATO relations is coordinated by the United States. It could be explained by the fact that during the last years the politics of Washingtonhas been reoriented from the European to the Asian-Pacific Region (АРR). Europe and NATO were focused on rapproachement with Russia in which France and Germany are to play the leading role. It explains the discussion of probable membership of Russia in the Alliance or, at least, closer cooperation with it.
The summit of NATO in Lisbon and participation of the Russian president in it will somewhat clear the political landscape up and, probably, show if these connections will become stronger and lead to rapproachement between the parties or the situation will remain at the level of declaring intentions. Tendencies and their development dynamics are important here. These can be: the joint actions plan for the near future or exchange of experience and technologies to counteract common threats.
But objective limits to close rapproachement between Russia and NATO are not to be missed here. The main factor among them is the restraint of the country's sovereignty that will follow Russian entering the Alliance. It leads to restraint of freedom of action in domestic and foreign policy. But the factor of the back action can take effect here, that is the perception of Russia to NATO will mean political death of the Alliance, as, having received the right of veto, Moscow theoretically will have an opportunity to change radically the politics of the Alliance down to domination in it if that is wanted by the Kremlin, and Bruxelles is not able to resist this pressure. It can turn out that Moscow will extend its influence on the Alliance to expand a field for a manoeuvre in dialogue on the European sequrity. Embedding of Moscow in political mechanisms of the Alliance may lead to strengthening of its rear positions in struggle against terrorism and extremism on a southern direction and neutralizations of threats from the East. But all this refers to blue dreams of some geopoliticians arguing on creation of a global political-military alliance from Vancouver to Vladivostok.
In a practical way the realization of settled rapproachement tendencies should be based on interests of both parties in near-term outlook of development of the international situation.
Considering the reasons of interest of the Alliance in rapproachement with Russia, first of all, the existing limits of its opportunities in Afghanistan should be noted. The global economic crisis has negatively affected the economic situation in the western countries and has actually closed the window of opportunities of Alliance expansion to the East. NATO has found itself in a position of the British Empire of the end of the XIXth century: with big obligations worldwide and decreasing economic and military power to fulfil them. This military power was reduced not due to decrease of military and technical potentials of the countries of the Allience, but due to unwillingness to risk the lives of the the soldiers in local conflicts. Now NATO needs mercenaries to run a war in hot spots of our planet. The Alliance is ready to arm, train them and to pay for their services to the governments of the states that are ready to receive such help. An example of that is Kirghizia where government is discussing the question on construction of the American military base in its territory. The same refers to Russia. Could we agree to the management of our country in the military field? Would we be able to preserve political and military independence of our country and ensure our national interests on the post-Soviet space?
As to interests of Russia in possible rapproachement with the North Atlantic Alliance there are only two essential moments here: the already mentioned strengthening of geopolitical positions of Russia on a western direction in the light of potential threats from the East and the expansion of military-technical and military-technological cooperation of our country with the NATO member-countries for the purpose of development of new military technologies.
Therefore, if we abstract from ideological constituent of this problem and adhere to pragmatical approach we could support the Russia - NATO rapproachement not forgetting our own national interests and safety. Thus, the first steps can be the cooperation in the settlement of situation in Afghanistan, maintenance of political stability and safety in the Central Asia, and also the struggle against spread of extremism and narco-traffic.