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The Taiwan Model and China’s Cyprus Policy

August, 2008

Unofficial relations between China and Cyprus dates back to the mid-1950s which saw the founding of the Non-Aligned Movement, and started with the attendance of Archbishop Makarios to the Bandung Conference on behalf of Cyprus in 1955. This was followed by Cyprus becoming one of the 25 founding states of the first Non-Aligned Movement at its summit held in Belgrade in 1961. When Turkish military intervention on the island became a possibility in 1964, the Greek-Cypriots first brought this issue up at the Non-Aligned Movement's Meeting of Heads of State and Government in Cairo on 5 October 1964 in an attempt to win international support. Thereafter the Cyprus issue was brought up continuously by Greek Cypriots at every summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. After the Peace Operation of 1974, the Non-Aligned Movement, at the Havana Summit of 1975, condemned the Peace Operation and asserted that any kind of attack that was made on the non-aligned state of Cyprus was seen as an attack on all its member states.
China has always supported the Non-Aligned Movement, which started with the Bandung Conference of 1955, but never became a member of the organisation and has continued its role until today as an observer. China supported all proposals and demands that Greek-Cypriots brought up at the Non-Aligned Movement. The unofficial relations between the Greek-Cypriots and China that were established through the Non-Aligned Movement organisation became official in 1971, when Cyprus voted for the acceptance of China to the United Nations and established diplomatic relations on 14 December 1971. During the Cold War relations between China and the Greek-Cypriots were facilitated by the communist AKEL party. After the Cold War, AKEL kept up its relations with the Chinese Communist Party and has even improved them. AKEL's Secretary General Dimitris Christofias', who is known very closely by China, electoral victory at the Presidential elections on 24 February 2008, signals the initiation of a new era in relations between China and the Greek-Cypriots.
The new government in the South of Cyprus lost no time in including the new determinant actor of international politics, China, to the Cyprus dispute. Minister of Foreign Affairs Markos Kyprianou signalled the initiation of a new phase for the future of the Cyprus dispute within the international arena during his official visit to China from 29 June - 1 July 2008. At the meeting between Greek-Cypriot Minister of Foreign Affairs Kyprianou and Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi the improvement of bilateral relations and cooperation between the two states and the resolution of the Cyprus dispute were discussed. Without doubt, the most important factor that shapes the Chinese approach to the Cyprus dispute is the effective political lobby of the Greek-Cypriots.

The Greek-Cypriots' China Policy

The then leader of the Greek-Cypriots Glafkos Klerides visited China for the first time two months before the Peace Operation in May 1974, with further visits in 1984 and 1990. China, on the other hand, did not visit the Greek-Cypriots until 1988. Glafkos Klerides visited China again on 7 June 1999, at which the Chinese President Jiang Zemin expressed his appreciation of Klerides's visit and praised the Greek-Cypriot Administration's neutral foreign policy. China, for the first time, officially commented on the Cyprus dispute when the Chinese President brought it up in his speech, stating that China respected the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral policies of Cyprus and underlined that other nations should also show the same respect. Jiang asked for a resolution in accordance with UN decisions and mentioned his hope for a resolution as UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan accepted to become the mediator. Klerides, on the other hand, thanked China for their support in the Cyprus dispute and declared the unwavering support of the Greek-Cypriot Administration for a "United China".
The Chinese President Jiang Zemin was warmly welcomed in Greece during his visit on 21 April 2000. In meetings, the Chinese President expressed his support for the Greek-Cypriot arguments, and therefore Greece's, on the Cyprus dispute. The next visit came in 2001 when Chinese Deputy President Hu Jintao visited the Greek-Cypriot Administration in the South. During his visit, Hu mentioned that he hoped Turkish-Cypriots and Greek-Cypriots would reach a solution with the help of UN Secretary-General Annan's facilitation. A change in Chinese foreign policy showed itself with Hu Jintao's visit. Previously China had approached the Cyprus dispute only via the Greek-Cypriots but during his visit, he chose to use a discourse that involved the two communities, Turkish-Cypriots and Greek-Cypriots.
The South Cyprus Greek-Cypriot Administration's Minister of Foreign Affairs Yorgos Yakovu's visit to Beijing in May 2005 was solely about improvement of trade relations. During meetings, Yakovu, as a member of the European Union (EU), asserted that the EU should lift the weapons embargo on China and expressed their support for the Anti-Secession Law that China's Parliament had passed in regard to Taiwan. In August 2005, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Li Zhaoxing in turn visited Southern Cyprus. In his welcome speech to Li, Tassos Papadopoulos, referring to the "United China" policy, expressed their support to the unification efforts of China with Taiwan. The expression by Chinese officials declaring Greece as a strategic partner and their pledge to support Greece and Greek-Cypriots on the Cyprus dispute, during a visit by Greek Prime-Minister Karamanlis to China in January 2006, did not escape attention either. In response to this, the Greek Prime-Minister pointed out that they accepted Taiwan was a part of China and supported the "United China" principle. Karamanlis also promised that Greece, as a member of the EU, would do everything in its power to lift the EU weapons embargo on China.

Tassos Papadopoulos's Visit to China

China's Cyprus policy became even more defined during the visit of the Greek-Cypriot leader Papadopoulos, as an official guest of Hu Jintao, to Beijing on the 4-8 December 2006. Papadopoulos was invited to celebrate the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Greek-Cypriot Administration. In Hu Jintao's statement, given after his meeting with Papadopoulos on 7 December 2006, he said that China is ready to make an effort to improve friendship and cooperation between China and Cyprus. Hu Jintao, on the Cyprus dispute, expressed that China is ready to continue its positive role, with the international community for the resolution of the Cyprus dispute in a fair and appropriate manner in accordance with UN decisions.
On 8 December, Papadopoulos met with Chinese Prime-Minister Wen Jiabao. At the meeting, the Chinese Prime Minister stated, that China would continue to play an active role in the resolution of the Cyprus dispute. In his statement, Wen Jiabao said that Cyprus's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity should be respected and that the Cyprus dispute should be resolved through negotiation, in accordance with UN decisions, in a fair and appropriate manner, thus any decision should include the interests and concerns of both Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Papadopoulos, on the other hand, expressed that Cyprus would work for the improvement of EU-China relations.

The Taiwanisation of the Cyprus Dispute

Papadopoulos's interesting approach to the Cyprus dispute can be seen by his statement to the Chinese media, which was published on the 5 December, just before his visit. During Papadopoulos' evaluation of relation between China and Cyprus, he underlined that two significant contracts were awarded to Chinese companies. Papadopoulos also mentioned the continuous support of China at the UNSC for the Cyprus dispute and expressed his gratitude to China for supporting Greek-Cypriots in any problems that they face at the UNSC. Papadopoulos used the opportunity to then indirectly criticise the United States and the United Kingdom by stressing that permanent members of the Security Council should approach the Cyprus dispute from the same angle, and asserted that some members had established a monopoly in previous years.
Papadopoulos went on to say that the Cyprus dispute is a problem of invasion and that all five permanent members should play an active role in the dispute. According to Papadopoulos only the United States and the United Kingdom were involved in the Cyprus dispute, but France, Russia and China were kept out of the process. While stressing that China is a valuable member for Cyprus, he asked China to become more active. On the other hand, Chinese journalists reminded him of China's support of Cyprus's territorial integrity, sovereignty and re-unification, and as such China expects Cyprus to support a "United China" policy. As an answer, Papadopoulos reminded them of his speech at the UN saying that Cyprus has always supported the "United China" policy. In addition, he said that there are some similarities between the Cyprus and Taiwan disputes; "our enemies" are pushing forward a "Taiwan Type Cyprus" formula for the resolution of the Cyprus dispute. Needless to say, China would not like to see the same things in Cyprus that happened in Taiwan. Furthermore, he went on to say that wherever it may be, if there is a Chinese nominee, Cyprus will vote for that nominee and reminded them that Cyprus voted for the Chinese nominee at the World Health Organisation.
In addition, Papadopoulos expressed his belief that the Cyprus dispute should be resolved under the auspices of the UN but that a resolution under the EU would be more appropriate since Greek-Cypriots, Greece and the United Kingdom are members of the EU and Turkey is aspiring to become a member. Papadopoulos also mentioned that negotiations are not enough in reaching a resolution. Papadopoulos, for the second time in the interview, expressed that "some enemies" are trying to establish a Taiwan model in Cyprus and asked for the active involvement of China. The Greek-Cypriots, moving a step further, added the United States into the equation and brought up rumours that the Taiwanisation of Cyprus is actually a plan of the United States, related to the Broader Middle East Project. Without doubt, we cannot underestimate the influence of Greece on the Greek-Cypriots discourse. Greece is using Greek-Cypriots for their negative activities in order not to damage its relations with Turkey.

The Greek-Cypriots are Buying Weapons from China

The Greek-Cypriots' intention to buy weapons from China is doubtless one of the most significant issues that have been debated behind closed doors until today. Previously, Greek-Cypriots were searching for ways to buy weapons from Russia. Some sources, one of which was the Greek Politis newspaper, said that one aspect of Papadopoulos's visit to China was about the procurement of weapons. Although the Greek-Cypriot Ministry of Defence denies this, in 2005 the Chinese NORICON firm sent a committee to Cyprus to negotiate the pricing of 70 Howitzer 155mm artillery guns. In October 2005, a deal, worth £47.3 million GBP was reached. However, this deal was cancelled due to corruption allegations. The Greek-Cypriot administration later went on to make an agreement with China for the weapons procurement of the Cyprus National Guard. There are several reasons why Greek-Cypriots choose to buy weapons from China. One of these reasons is due to pressure from the United States for Athens to withdraw American weapons from Cyprus, another is that the Cyprus National Guard needs new and modern weaponry and the necessity to diversify the source of arms and munitions rather than solely acquiring from the one source.

The United States, Cyprus and the Taiwan Model

When it became apparent that Greek-Cypriots would vote ‘No' to the Annan Plan, great uncertainty arose particularly in the United States on the future of North Cyprus. After the Greek-Cypriot ‘No' vote, some experts suggested that Turkey should propose the Taiwan model to the United States. The basic argument being that although Taiwan is not recognised as a state, it has a special trade relationship with the US. Just like Taiwan, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) could be recognised by both the US and the international community via this model. After the Broader Middle East project had been put forward, the proposal of such a model by some in the United States is not surprising and would answer a lot of questions. The Chinese area of influence is easily checked with Taiwan. The United States could control the whole of the Middle East and East Mediterranean if it acquired a military base in Cyprus. However, on 1 May 2004 Cyprus became a European Union territory; this strengthened the EU's hand, who wants to act more independently. This has a negative effect on US interests in the region. Günter Verheugen's statement saying that the "green line is EU's border" shows how the EU divided Cyprus in its own right. In the intermediate term, the level that the EU common defence will reach is important. If an independent European Army arises after this process, the EU will start to establish its own military power centres. Cyprus has vital significance for the EU, which seeks to increase its influence over the Middle East. The United States, on the other hand, does not want its advantage snatched by the EU.
The United States, which realised that a resolution would not be reached, wanted to kill two birds with one stone by clarifying the international status of the Turkish side by adopting it into the international system and gaining a strategic spot. In accordance with the Taiwan model, Turkish-Cypriots would become more independent and maybe the Turkish Armed Forces would withdraw from the island. With military assistance to the Turkish side to establish its own army and defence capabilities, the Turkish-Cypriots would become a trump card to play against the EU and the United States would gain an American ally in a stable location of the Middle East. Just like the unsinkable aircraft carrier that Taiwan is in the South China Sea, Cyprus would become its unsinkable aircraft carrier in the East Mediterranean.
The Taiwan model does not appear to be a realistic solution to the Cyprus dispute. At this point Greek-Cypriots are at an advantage in any case. The uncertainty in North Cyprus's status may be resolved with this approach, but we cannot foresee what kind of further problems this may bring. Great Britain took the advantage that was created by events in 1878 when, even though the Ottoman Empire had temporarily rented the island to England, the Ottomans lost it completely to them following World War I. We cannot be sure that the Taiwan model would not produce the same result in the future. Although North Cyprus is seen as a buffer zone for Turkey's security now, it could in the future be used to keep Turkey in check just as Taiwan is used against China today.
In a statement he once made to the Greek Politis newspaper, the former American Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the 1974 intervention will never happen again and signalled that the United States would somehow send the Turkish Army away and that Turkey would lose its guarantor status. On the other hand, the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs has said that "In the case of a Greek-Cypriot ‘No' vote, recognition of the TRNC by EU members is impossible; whether EU laws are applied or not the North of Cyprus is EU territory." Further to this, the minister went on to say that any third parties who did recognise the TRNC would experience problems with the EU themselves. Maybe because of this, Azerbaijan, whom Turkey supports in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, and Pakistan, for whom Turkey takes a stance against India, have not gone on to recognise the TRNC. In conclusion, any imported models for a solution of the Cyprus dispute cannot possibly bring peace to the island.

The Greek-Cypriot Administration's Minister of Foreign Affairs Markos Kyprianou's China Visit

In recent days whilst the Turkish and Greek sides have initiated a new process for the resolution of the Cyprus dispute, the visit of Foreign Affairs Minister Kyprianou to China is very significant. The main topic of the visit was the Cyprus dispute. In meetings, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Jang Jiechi stated that the resolution of the Cyprus dispute should be reached through negotiations between the two communities and that it should be in accordance with UNSC decisions in a fair and equal manner. Moreover, he reiterated China's support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Cyprus, praising the efforts of Greek-Cypriots for the resolution of the Cyprus dispute and stated that China will support the new initiative. Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs also stated that China would keep playing a positive role at the UNSC until a permanent resolution has been reached in the Cyprus dispute. Chinese officials also thanked the Greek-Cypriots for their support for the "United China" policy and their efforts for the improvement of EU-China relations. In conclusion, Greek-Cypriots are in search of support from states other than the US to resolve the conflict in accordance to their own arguments. Consequently, the governing party AKEL has looked to the Chinese government for support by utilising its ideological and historical links with the Chinese Communist Party.

Department of International Relations
Faculty of Political Sciences
Ankara University
badibelli@yahoo.com

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