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Turkey’s Success Barter That Puts The Sanctions Aside

June, 2010

Fallowing the debates with Turkey and Brazil leaders, Iran has signed the agreement that accepts uranium enrichment shall go in progress in abroad.
Iran Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that low level enriched 1200kg of uranium will be sent to Turkey in exchange for nuclear fuel that to be used for research reactors.
It was also reported that the plan can be parallel with an agreement which was offered by United Nations to Iran before. The very same plan was on agenda for the first time last year. Thus will aid the situation and prevent the implementations of new sanctions of United Nation about Iran's nuclear program.
The agreement is signed by President Of Iran Mahmud Ahmedinejad, Prime Minister of Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the President of Brazil Luis İnacio Lula Da Silva in Tehran.
According to the agreement, at the rate of 3.5 percent enriched uranium will be sent to Turkey by Iran.
Terms Of The Agreement
• Iran will inform IAEA in a week
•If the agreement is confirmed by the Vienna Group, 1.200kg of low level enriched uranium will be transported to Turkey.
•This substance shall belong to Iran goverment during its operation in Turkey.
•Tehran and IAEA can charge an observer to inspect and order the security.
•The Vienna Group will present 120kg of nuclear fuel to Iran.
•Iran can demand the return of its substance definitively with the fastest way from Turkey.

Islamic Republic of Iran Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has announced that 1200 kg of uranium will be sent to Turkey and International Atomic Energy Agency will be informed "in a week" about the agreement.
Thus, Iran can use the beneficial ways of nuclear energy without having risk to reach the limits of nuclear weapon technology.
Iran President Mahmud Ahmedinejad called world leaders to negotiate about the matter upon the agreement.
Ahmedinejad also says that it is time to negitoate in a "fair, judicious and mutual respective athmosphere ."
Minister Of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey Ahmet Davutoğlu, who has great afforts to bring the situation at this point for 18 months, stated that due to the agreement is signed in the consideration for Turkey and Brazil, there is no need for applying sanctions for Iran.
According to the agreement, if the Vienna Group consisting of USA, Russia, France and IAEA confirms the agreement, Iran is ready to transfer the uranium in a month.
It is expected to transfer %20 enriched uranium to Iran in a year to exchange for keeping %3.5 uranium. This rate is below the necessary enrichment level for producing nuclear weapons. However it is enough for energy production and research reactors.
According to the experts, the agreement is not clear whether the uranium which is brought to Turkey will be used for new fuel production or will be kept in stock. The Turkish officals says that the uranium is brought to Turkey will be kept in stocks..
Desperateness of West
The signing date of the contract is in a period of the forth sanction pack against Iran is being negotiated by the Security Council.
According to Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan, this step is an indicator for the trustworthy between Turkey and Iran.
Even though the France Minister Of Foreign Affairs Bernard Kouchner says that they break through for the intercourses about the sanctions, it will not a metter of discussion for a decision about the sanctions. Besides, fallowing the agreement, Russia will clearly object such sanctions.
Additionally, President Medvedev stated in a the visit to Ankara in 12-13 May that he shares the same opinion with Turkish Goverment. Also The Russia's attempts for a deterrent step are already known.
According the France Goverment, the necessary assessments about the last agreement should be in progressed with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) first.
The Misistry Of Foreign Affairs Spokesman Bernard Valero says that, "Let's not be duped by this, although there is a need for an agreement for medicine reactor, this will not be a the solution to the problem posed by nuclear program."
The German goverment said that nothing could replace a deal between Iran and the IAEA.
A western diplomat argued that believing Iran has 2.000kg of enriched uranium, even thought the 1.200kg of this stock is sent to Turkey, Iran will still have large amount of enriched uranium.
Reaction of Israel
Explaining the reaction, Israel accused Iran for manipulating the leaders of Turkey and Brazil.
The Western countries still insisting on that Iran is trying to develop its nuclear techonology. However Iran says that the nuclear program is for peace.
Last year, Western countries had suggested to send the Iran's low level enriched uranium to Russia and France for trasmuting it to nuclear fuel.
Tehran on the other side, had explained that they were impend to the agreement in principle. But later on, the terms desired by Iran on this agreement was not accepted by Westerns.
Last chance to arrive at an agreement with Iran
Iran is making an effort to against possible UN sanctions.
USA officials says that other countries are close to came to a conclusion against Iran to pass a new pack of sanctions through United Nations Security Council.
High level USA and Russian officers state that they take the President Lula's visit as a last chance of hope to get compensations before starting to implement new sanctions to this countey.
Turkey and Brazil, as the non-permanent members of United Nations Security Council, are the countries that donot possess nuclear weapons and trying a diplomatic solution for Iran's nuclear program.
Prime Minister of Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Turkey is against the nuclear weapons and all Middle East shall clear itself from nuclear weapons also. The nuclear energy for civil purpose is a right for each country.
Iran in this context, initiated a diplomatic attack against the possible sanctions and the Minister of Foreign Affairs also visited the 15 members of Security Council.
USA DISAPPOINTED TURKEY
As the architects of the agreement, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Brazilian leader Luis İnacio Lula da Silva, raised their hands together with Iranian leader Mahmud Ahmedinecad. They also had a great role for the efforts of conciliation between Iran and West. However the efforts of USA to present the sanction decisions to the UN, angers Ankara. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Republic of Turkey Davutoğlu, stressfully states that it is the wrong time for Iran to discuss the sanctions and he is also mentioned the disappointments that caused by the attitudes of USA.
The main demoralising element is the China and Russia's approval on sanction bill, as they take these countries on their side. However, with the confirmation of the agreement, this possibility is far off. Further more, Moscow and Pekin are cool towards the sanctions for months. Russia is actually face to face with a seesaw here.
I. The sanctions for Iran, will effect negatively the economic developments between Moscow and Tehran. Russia's short term damage will be great.
II. In any case, if the decides for sanctions are not taken, the political obstacle for Iran gas to transpot it to the West will be cleared. In this circumstances, the gas support for NABUCCO pipe line will be provided. The importance of the south flow pipe line that Russia invested large amount of money will decrease.
If the second choice is actualized, the damage of Russia will not show itself in a short time; but it will be seen in a long term period. Turkey will be the determinant country for the Moscow's decision. Besides, Turkish side gave some commitments when Medvedev visited Ankara. Signature of 12 agreements and strategic partnership in the field of energy will effect the decision of Russia. The warm relations between two countries and the strategic partnership that based on concrete steps are forcing Russia to oppose the sanctions.
Consequently, we can see anti-western speeches in Iran. Their contention will be the Westerns that rejects the friendly approach of Iran thorugh the negotiations. They can also claim that this is the colour of the Westerns. So, anyone in Iran that feels anxious about losing their enriched uranium, may now breathe a sigh of relief.
Success of Turkey
Latest agreement will soften the nuclear tension between Iran and Westerns clearly but there is an other important fact for Turkey; If Turkey manages to end this process without effecting negatively the resfect showed by Iran and if the both sides are pleased after the process, the new bilateral relation era between countries can begin. Turkey is trying to find solutions that creates bilateral benefits, but the answers are not satisfying Turkey. There are very important messages in the progress of this agreement about the enrichment uranium that Tehran had made great efforts to produce for twenty years, and the completion of whole process with consensus of different groups in the country. If Turkey was not a part of this process, it would be impossible for any other neighbour country to accept as a part of this agreement. Mutual respect will also improve the geopolitical partnership that based on economy between Turkey and Iran. This situation, will be serve the purpose of Europe no doubt. Because of that, Europeans will see the events from a long term perspective and they donot support.
The increasing power of Turkey in the region and addition of Iran to Turkey's strategic circle will anger the USA and especially Israel. This anger may lead the problems or comments that impossible to repair later.
a) The decision of USA Congress that confirmes the genocide carried out by Turks to Armenians in 1915

b) The Islamic ideology has settled to Turkey, reviving the califate system
c) Putting the scenarios that emerged from the collapse of Otoman on agenda of Turkey.
d) The close perspective of Turkey and bearing the consequences of this situation.

All these delirias will be the messages to the soldiers primarily, then to the secular people. However the agreement is not all about the Islamic references of Turkish goverment. The status and power of Turkey was the effective matter in the agreement. In addition to that, it should not be forgetton that while the EU was acting foolishly, the Turkish Generals were defending the idea that a partnership should be established with Iran and Russia [1].
[1]. STRATFOR Turkey Using Iran, Russia as Leverage Against EU June 24, 2002

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