Foreign Policy Choices in Times of Crisis

Anyone even remotely familiar with international relations will easily avow to the escalation of tensions in global politics lately. The current rising tide of political uncertainty and economic woes naturally reflect in the foreign policy agendas of all states, albeit some with more trepidation than others, but it does test their ability to adjust, react and adopt effective crisis management strategies. 1 Ideally, elimination, or at least, the effective management of risk becomes the priority goal of states caught up amidst these tensions. Ankara's foreign policy initiative seeking to establish the ‘Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform,' is one such important, and potentially meaningful, example of an attempt to diffuse the unrest following the South Ossetia crisis in the Caucasus.
Challenges unleashed by a flurry of international instability can be abrupt and subject to fluctuations, and prevent states from retaining their pre-crisis goals and priorities. Developments that cause rising global and regional tensions threaten to disrupt the existing, and often sensitive, balance in global power politics. When the balance is swayed on essential issues, such as national security, governance or legitimacy, states are compelled to reconsider their foreign policy priorities, sometimes completely abandoning certain policy directions, and turn instead to issues or actors that command immediate attention.2
For example, , Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) led by Russia, and rumors that it would withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) after the August 2008 Georgian conflict reveal a decisive foreign policy shift in response to a major regional crisis. 3 Uzbekistan's bid to break the Kremlin's grasp over its national policy and opt for a shift towards Washington and Brussels cannot be explained away as an attempt to have certain regional political or economical leverage 4. At least part of the rational behind this shift can be explained as Uzbekistan's desire to minimize the impact of encroaching security threats. 5 One such major threat happens to be Afghanistan.
The Main Causes Behind Strategy Shifts
Changes in national and foreign policy direction are a natural part and parcel of political governance, and are often necessary to ensure a climate of stability and security, especially in the face of new threats. Unconventional threats have pushed states to commit to sometimes bolder measures to protect their citizens, a trend which has intensified recently. Actively enforcing measures to prevent security threats from escalating beyond control is a necessity of national interest. Changes in world politics and the prevalence of realpolitik in international affairs demands that every state protect its own national interests.
According to renowned Turkish analyst Erol Mutercimler, "significant shifts in national will or interest definitions takes either a long period of time or a sudden and radical change'.6 Political turning points that deeply impact both nations and the world-such as the inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama-and changes in global circumstances are opportunities to inject renewed vigor to issues that are central to national interests. This may then trigger strategic shifts in how states define their priorities. This is not only true for ‘failed states,'7 but also for the EU members, which can also put aside certain values when central interests are at stake. 8
Turkey: Foreign Policy Success
The pragmatic vein in Turkey's foreign policy is rooted in its definition of its national interests, and the bold diplomatic steps that Turkey has taken recently merits attention. Both Turkey's bordering neighbors and other regional actors are impressed by Turkey's more active foreign policy initiatives as of late, earning it greater prestige in world politics. The International Crisis Group pointed to the recent trend of pragmatism on either side of the Turkey-Iraqi border, praising as a positive development the improvement of relations between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds as a defeat of ultra-nationalism.9 Various separatist groups will likely try to circumvent these positive developments and turn the tide of events against Ankara; but preventing their efforts from materializing requires the concerted effort of both Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds.
Standing as a geopolitical link between the Middle East, the Balkans, Eurasia, and Africa, Turkey has the potential to enter a new period of renewed prominence in its foreign policy. The two-year membership on the United Nations Security Council may be the harbinger of further change as Turkey's role in setting the course of regional and global developments evolves. 10
Turkey's position as an actor taking strides towards a more influential and vocal stand on key global topics comes hand in hand with the strain of consistency and engagement that has become the cornerstones of Turkey's foreign policy recently.
Consistency in Foreign Policy
Consistency in foreign policy is attainable through the core principles held by a state. A state's foreign policy concept or doctrines are reflections of the order which it aims to project onto the global system. Interpretations of foreign policy and formal doctrine are of course intimately related to state ideology. A state's perspective on foreign policy defines the obligations and responsibilities it assumes for itself. It also offers a reading of its vision for the global order; as well as how it sees itself in the world. 11
A tone of consistency and continuity in foreign policy means that, in general terms, states can make assumptions about how other states will behave. In times of crisis, precedence in state behavior can indicate how they are likely to respond and react. Ideally, of course, a state's foreign policy should be designed in line with its existing resources, capacity, and potential for diplomatic maneuvering. In framing its foreign policy, a state also needs to take into consideration its standing and negotiating power in the global community. The ‘grand strategies' that the U.S. has adopted over time-the Bush doctrine for example-was enabled by the weight of U.S. political, economic and cultural influence in capitals across much of the globe. Another example is Russia's so-called ‘Medvedev Doctrine' and the renewed ‘Russian Foreign Policy Concept' accepted in 2008. Such doctrines serve as roadmaps for the future of the Russian Federation, and offer insight into how Russia sees itself abroad. Areas of potential cooperation, priorities for the region, and how it anticipates others will react to the vision it sets out for itself are features of the Russian foreign policy concept. 12
Brainstorming between Ankara and Astana
The initiative launched under President Abdullah Gul's auspices, ‘Turkey's Strategic Vision 2023' is gaining momentum, and will set out Turkey's vision for itself and its broader foreign policy perspective. Marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic in 2023, the project seeks to define Turkey's policy goals in a number of key areas.13
As the president of Kazakhstan, Turkey's ally in Central Asia, Nursultan Nazarbayev has pointed out that "initiating foreign policy activities based on a position, goals, strategy and possibilities defined under democratic and contemporary terms" is a necessity. Sharing this sentiment, Turkey convened a summit attended by its ambassadors in Ankara on 15 July, 2008, on "Turkey's Foreign Policy: Orientation and Priorities". With a view towards naming Turkey's role in the world amidst changing global conditions; Foreign Minister Ali Babacan emphasized that Turkey, like all countries, must determine the contours of its foreign policy keeping in mind the specific circumstances of the 21st century. 14
In November 2008, in a similar vein, Kazakhstan held an extended sitting of the Foreign Ministry Collegium, presided over by President N. Nazarbayev, also the country's chief foreign policy strategist, and commissioned to work out in the first half of 2009 a new concept of the nation's foreign policy. Again, the purpose was to analyze the global trajectory and weigh Kazakhstan's options.
Kazakhstan's New Foreign Policy Concept
The objective of the meeting was to pinpoint new positions on the Foreign Ministry's policy agenda and highlight Kazakhstan's growing role in the international arena. Emphasizing Kazakhstan's active diplomacy and membership in the international community, Nazarbayev also made a point of stressing the importance of regional ties, stating that "Relying on brotherly relations with neighboring countries, we will be taking further efforts to promote true pragmatic integration within the region. It is through concerted efforts that we will be able to meet challenges and ensure sustainable development of the region".
Consensus was reached on the notion that Kazakhstan needs a new and more forward-looking foreign policy concept, and the Foreign Ministry will work towards that end. Speaking on the action-plan setting out the Kazakh foreign policy concept President Nazarbayev said that "The analysis involved in the concept plan is based on in-depth look at global trends. In addition to defining our clear position on important international issues, Kazakhstan's way forward is defined vis-à-vis its regional and global relations. Kazakhstan has earned its place in the arena of global politics, and this means that states give importance to our position and views." 15
In many ways, Turkey has also drawn the attention of global politics, and must now define its role abroad in terms of its national interests.
Similarities in Foreign Policy Approach: Turkey and Kazakhstan
Much like Turkey, Kazakhstan, aims to assume the role of strategic gateway between East and West, and supports the concepts of ‘zero problems with neighbors' and ‘rhythmic diplomacy', as vocalized by Turkey's chief foreign policy advisor, Ahmet Davutoğlu; gives precedence to regional security; and encourages dialogue between different faiths and civilizations. Kazakhstan is also taking decisive steps for a more secure and stable world, and voices this as a foreign policy imperative on every global platform.

Astana is watching the latest developments in Turkey's foreign policy carefully, and has been a strong supporter of Turkey since its independence. Kazakhstan also openly favors Turkey's newfound role as ‘mediator', and that it seeks to expand its own diplomatic progress through stronger ties with Turkey is natural. In the face of a rising global tide that brings with it unprecedented change, the East is strengthening itself from within. Astana and Turkey now, more than ever, can benefit from a coordinated and consistent foreign policy approach.
Assistant Editor "Atayurt" Journal
For more information on crisis management tools, see, Erol Mutercimler, Yuksek Stratejiden Etki Odakli Harekata: Gelecegi Yonetmek, [From Strategy to Impact-Oriented Action: Managing the Future] Alfa Publications, 2006, pp. 657-81.
For example, the United States gave up some legal rights for tighter control procedures after the 9/11.
Certainly other important factors are also at play. President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov's position and views on regional integration may also have had a role in this move.
Monika Shepherd, "Uzbekistan Suspends EurAsEC Membership", Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy (ISCIP), 24 November 2008.
For an in-depth analysis of this kind, one must look at the a state's regional context, its possibilities and circumstances. For an analysis of Central Asia and the factors influencing the foreign policies of the region's states, see, L.Yun, Central Asia: Geopolitical Prisoners?, International Studies Association, 48th Annual Convention.
Erol Mütercimler, ibid. p.383.
See "The Failed States Index 2007," Foreign Policy Magazine, July/August 2007, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3865.
Judy Dempsey, "For EU, rights falling victim to convenience", International Herald Tribune, 13 December, 2007.
See "Turkey and Iraqi Kurds: Conflict or Cooperation?". Middle East Report, Nº81, 13 November, 2008, http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5777&l=1.
V.Özdemir, E.Kelleci, A.R.Cüce, "Merkez Ülke Olma Yollarında Türkiye", [On the Road to becoming a Major State, Turkey", ODTÜ Sosyal Demokrasi Topluluğu [Middle East Technical University Social Democrat Society], http://www.sodem.metu.edu.tr/yazi2.html.
Importantly, all states need to conform to commin principles and international legal norms.
George Friedman, "The Medvedev Doctrine and American Strategy , STRATFOR, 2 September, 2008
See http://www.tsv2023.org/
Daniyar Kosnazarov, "Yeni Dönem Türk Dış Politikasını Anlamak",[Understanding New Trends in Turkish Foreign Policy] Türk Avrasya Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi (TASAM) [Turkey Caucasus Strategic Research Center], 30 September 2008, http://www.tasam.org/index.php/index.php?altid=2478.
"Nursultan Nazarbayev prinyal uçastie v rasşirennom zasedanii kollegii Ministerstva inostrannıh del RK" [Nursultan Nazarbayev's participation in the extended sitting of the Foreign Ministry Collegium], Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry website, 11 December, 2008.