In the last two years, Russia has become Turkey's biggest trading partner. Each year nearly five million Russian and Turks pass to the against coast of Black Sea. Moscow and Ankara have already signed the agreement that removes the necessity of a visa to facilitate this transition. Bureaucrats are about to finish the preparations for implementing the agreement. The rapprochement between the two countries is defined as strategic by Putin and Erdogan. This definition is justified by some energy and military agreements. Turkey's decision to host NATO's missile defense system radar is interpreted as give up to Russia on the Long-Range Regional Air and Missile Defense System Project tender. The quest for balance between Washington and Moscow is certain to be effective. However the NATO's General in Ankara defend to buy the Patriot system would right to avoid the problem of compliance with the NATO systems instead of the Russian S-300 missiles. However, the compliance S-300 with NATO's systems is tested in other countries before. This confusion which will start between Ankara and Moscow because of the NATO's radars can convert the voltage.

VIOLANCE IN THE CAUCASUS

Real tension between Turkey and Russia in the Caucasus in bloom. Intelligence recourses noted that violence and terrorist incidents will increase in the Caucasus in the time will pass until the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. The Challenge to undermine relations between Russia and Turkey has three strategic reasons:
1. The deployment of one of NATO's missile shields on the Turkey's coast of the Black Sea.
2. The contention between NABUCCO and SOUTH FLOW
3. The strategic partnership between Turkey and Russia

Regional conflicts in the Caucasia will lead to an increase in the tension and affect the relations between Turkey and Russia adversely. The withdrawal of Turkey into the conflict will play a decisive role in the tactical dimension of this main strategy. For the placement of the one of the missile shields on a region in the Turkey's coast of Black Sea, a principle decides existed. This is a message given to Russia for the selection of Sinop or Trabzon. Because Russian ATOMTROYEXPORT company has signed an agreement with Turkey to set up nuclear power plant in Sinop. Trabzon also 190 miles away from Turkey's border with Georgia. System is placed in the Black Sea coast means that the U.S. military base. It will be installed on the shore of Russia-Turkey and Russia-Europe pipelines. According to the statements, the establishing details of the NATO systems will be completed in 2011. With the introduction of the system, the Moscow's protection on Abkhazia or Ossetia from a possible Georgian attack will be difficult in incomparable degree with 2008. In the period of time will pass between 2012-2014, it should expected that Georgia will take a big step that destabilizes Caucasus. At the same time, it should not be kept out of sight that the Wahhabi groups in North Caucasus supported by Tbilisi. The Georgian Government's decision to remove the visa for Russian citizens living in the North Caucasus on October 12 should be seen as evidence of this support. Moscow's reaction due to the fact that known by Russia very well.

A Turkey with US bases can not act against to growing conflicts in Caucasia as the war in 2008. In such a case, relations between Ankara and Moscow during the Cold War is inevitable even worse. Because with the NATO's missile shield and its new strategic concept Turkey has became front-country from being wing-country.

TACTICAL STEPS

Above all, the Circassia problem will be provoked and young people are always drawn to this problem. To prevent stability, Ossetia-Ingush conflict can also be used and Stavropol region has been toward in the center of this attack.

According to findings of the Russian secret services, the increasing terrorist activities in Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachi which are shown by separatists as the provinces of the Caucasus Emirate carried out with the funds from international organizations to destabilize the situation in the south of Russia. These funds are sent by western secret services and a few months ago a huge funds was transferred from abroad in various channels. The recipients of money are the leaders who distribute funds and Dokkum Umarov who proclaimed himself as the Emir of the Caucasus is also among them.

The raging war in the Caucasia has effects on the Diaspora. The Caucasus Diaspora in Turkey is becoming divided on the name of organized institutions. The Federation of Caucasian Associations (KAFFED) has taken the recommendation about the name change of branches.
Accordingly, some provincial associations change their "Caucasian" association names as "Circassia". Groups that occurred majority of young people oppose to the name change violently. The most intense criticism for the name change is that it will instigate separation in the Caucasus Diaspora. Because in the Caucasian Diaspora that is plowed to Turkey, there are different groups, such as Adygeya, Abkhaz, Abazin, Kabardian, Chechen, Karachay. Change of name will cause the diverge in the groups and the limiting building to the radicals will be eliminated.

NATIVE LANGUAGE DEBATE

While the fierce debate about name in progress in the Diaspora of Turkey, different discussions about native language education and the official language of the Caucasus Emirate are experienced. KAFFED Native Commission developed a curriculum study in Adyghe and Abaza at the end of the meetings on October 30-31 to be presented to the Turkish Ministry of Education. The long-standing debate in Diaspora on the pass to the Cyrillic alphabet to Latin alphabet or not. Finally, the Cyrillic alphabet has been adopted. However, radicals in the Caucasus started working on the use of Ottoman (a language mix of Arabic and Persian and Turkish) as the official language.

The study was initiated on a proposal to Dokku Umarov. The suggestion seems to made by Muslims of the Caucasus Emirate in connections with public institutions, administrative management system, the national language, political, administrative and legal terminology databases and intensive discussions on a nation-building. But it is known that the proposal is a result of the foreign effects among the radicals. In the case of a concrete realization of this ingenious proposal, youth of the Diaspora in Turkey can establish closer ties with the radicals in Caucasus. Then the communication channels will be opened up to the end between Dokku Umarov's mujahideen and the youth of the Diaspora in Turkey who do not know Russian or Caucasus languages.

Indeed, the supporters of Ottoman as official language stated to bring this language would be effectively and quickly for the community of Caucasia Emirate which absorbed many of the words and terms of Ottoman language historically. In addition, a portion of the North Caucasian people also speaks Turkish.

The Ottoman language, as it is known, a language was created by Ottoman Turks who hold Islamic Caliphate by adding Arabic and Persian to Turkish. It also had a profound effect on society, the citizens of the Caliphate and others who had relationship with the Caliphate.

THE STRATEGIC SEPERATION

Dokku Umarov is endeavoring to prove his power by spreading the Chechen problem to all the Caucasus and even the interior of Russia. One of the reasons of this known fact that the anti- Moscow groups are affected in the Chechenization process (politics, administration and police force and the economy into the hands of the Chechens). The serious differences are in question between armed wing that declared to manage Caucasus according to Sheria as a target and other opposition groups. In fact, even among supporters of Sharia there is a strong separation which has questioned Dokkum Umarov's Emirate. Umarov and his team have lost their effectiveness in some areas. Intelligence information shows that he remains standing with foreign support. These foreign supports are originating Europe Islamic organizations.

Moscow's incontestable priority to cause Zakayev, the Prime Minister of Chechnya- Ichkeria, returning back to Moscow. It is known that the contact between Moscow and Zakayev is carried out by Ramadan Kadyrov. Moscow's aim is to prevent to use of thousands of Chechen who located refugees in Europe aganist to Russia and Chechenya by the West in this process. According to Moscow, Zakayev who listened by a certain segment of people can do it. The first objective of the return of Zakayev is the completion of the Chechen refugee case which plagues in Moscow. The inhent behind the curtain is a role which is taken by Zakayev to persuade the resistant group in the mountain to cease fire. As a someone whostressed repeatedly that the only solution to the problem of Chechen is political negotiation, it is possible to take such a role for himself. But it should be remembered that Zakayev has no automatic effect on neither the leader of the movement of the Caucasia Emirate Dokkum Umarov nor people around him continued armed resistance.

The ideological transformation of the Chechen resistance reduces Zakayev's effects on armed front seriously. A shift occured on target of the resistance according to the beginning; "The Idea of Independent Chechenya" replaced with the idea of "The Independent Islamic State in The Whole Caucasus". Chechen- Ichkeria does not exist any longer instead of it The Emirate of Caucasus is valid for the Resistance Front. Also the Resistance Front does not introduce a homogeneous structure which Chechens are in harmony in it. Every region has its own organization. The structure has a range of ethnic diversity. The effets on foreigners since the war may be the most powerful point. Independent Chechnya now replaced by the ideas of "Free Islamic Caucasus, Freedom to Caucasian Muslims, The Right to Live According to Sharia, The Laws of God".

THE TACTICAL SEPERATION

Samil Basayev initiated to the process of Middle-Eastization in Caucasus resistance by opening the way for suicide bombings. The legitimacy of getting civilians as target discussed. Umarov was in the side of the opposition to killing civilians. Now he radicalized as much as to say "why do we see people as civil population". Umarov's dominated Wahhabi group has become to offers the identical foto with El-Qaeda now. Umarov and his team are planning operations even bigger than the events such as Beslan and Nord-Ost. Under the frightened shadow of Russia which declared finished the war, four seperate powers in different directions are rasping eachother:

1. A resistance that hopes to repetition the tragedy of Beslan vast forests of the Caucasus,
2. In exile the Government of Chechn-Ichkaria with no legitimate power and its desperate team,
3. Accused of using violence the front of Kadirov that also started to use diplomacy,
4. The follower of Cohar Dudayev, the leader of National Movement Isa Munaev and his little underground team.

Like blooming balls in Yellow Sea just three days after the NATO summit, the missile systems which are placed in Turkey can inflame the war in Caucasus again. The pioneer tremors of it come from under the Black Sea and Turkey can not be neutral in this war. The strategic alliance between Turkey and Russia which was established in twenty years with great effort can collapse. Ankara and Moscow will return to the days of Cold War and come up against to each other in the wide Turkestan geography extended to China, so NATO gets what it wants before the missiles fired.