The great Iranian fable writer Samad Behrangi wrote in one of his stories about a little fish that takes on an adventurous journey to open seas from the river he lives in. When the Little Black Fish tells his mother of his decision to go, he explains why: "I want to know, can there be another way to live in the world?"
The same question rings true for relations between Behrangi's country and the US: Is there any other way to live? The recent developments show us that both countries are looking for an alternative way to coexist:
- Washington has been preparing to open a US interests office in Tehran;
- The EU decided to freeze Iranian bank assets;
- Israel carried out a military exercise in the region.
Even though these developments seem contradictory, they should be perceived as parts of a whole. According to officials who wish to remain anonymous, a series of secret talks have been underway between the US and Iran. The last of these took place at the US Embassy in Turkey at the beginning of May. On the American side the US Ambassador in Iraq, Ryan Cocker, the Commanding General of US forces in Iraq, David Petraeus, and intelligence officers from the Pentagon and the CIA attended the secret meeting in Ankara. The Iranian side was represented by the Head of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi. Former Swiss President (and current Foreign Minister), Micheline Calmy-Ray, mediated the meeting as Switzerland has been handling the US's diplomatic relations with Iran since 1979. Two Iraqi Shiite leaders known for their close ties to Iran, the Head of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SCIRI), Abdulaziz al-Hakim, and the Head of Iraqi National Congress (INC), Ahmed Chalabi, were also present.
Looking at the list of participants, we can say that Iran's nuclear programme is perceived to be related to the Iraq issue. According to official sources, Kamal Kharrazi asked for a guarantee that his country would not be attacked by the US and Israel and requested release of Iranian assets of 12 billion US dollars frozen by the West after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
‘A neutral Supplier'
Meanwhile, negotiations are underway concerning a proposal to continue Iran's nuclear programme abroad, for instance in Switzerland. The ‘neutral supplier country' formula is a solution Iran favours most. However, Iran is not willing to reach an agreement which will make it possible for foreign countries to monitor its armed forces while inspecting its nuclear programme. There are signs in Tehran that President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is considering the option of transferring Iran's uranium enrichment project to a neutral country outside the region. The recent proposal by Gulf countries to set up a consortium to produce nuclear fuel in a neutral country such as Switzerland is still on the table. Switzerland believes that it is in a unique position to bring the opposing sides together as it has been representing Washington's interests in Tehran since the US severed its diplomatic relations with Iran in 1979. According to Micheline Calmy-Rey, great powers failed to persuade Iran to give up its uranium enrichment programme and it is doubtful whether Tehran will now stop this programme under further pressure.1
Carrot and Stick
Developments concerning Iran during the last two months indicate a pattern whereby both carrots and sticks are concurrently on offer to bring about a solution to the problem.

If the secret meeting in Ankara is the carrot -and it seems to be so-, then the Israeli military exercise and leaking news of the exercise can be nothing but the stick. A news article published at the beginning of June in The New York Times claimed that F-16 and F-15 fighter planes participated in the exercise that took place in the Eastern Mediterranean.2 As usual, the Israeli government made no comment. We know from past experiences such as the bombing of Syria that Israel's silence is in fact evidence of acknowledgement. According to American sources, over a 100 F-16 and F-15 fighter planes participated in the exercise. It seems that a sudden strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is an option seriously considered by Israel. However, from a military point of view the likelihood of such an attack is questionable. Even if Israeli fighter planes follow the route over Jordan and Iraq, it will still be problematic for them to hit the facilities in Natanz and return to base. This will necessitate tanker aircraft to take off alongside the fighter planes to provide them fuel en route. Another alternative is for the Israeli fighter planes to carry additional fuel tanks and drop empty tanks before returning to base, just like they did when they bombed Syria.
One also wonders whether helicopters that are used to rescue downed pilots took part in the Eastern Mediterranean exercise because the distance between Israel and Iran is simply too long. These helicopters can fly more than 900 miles which is approximately the distance between Natanz and Israel.
While Israel is preparing to strike Iran, Washington is adamant in trying out alternative ways. News about the US opening an "interests section" in Tehran should be analysed in connection with the secret meeting in Ankara.3 It was suggested that this office will have the same status as the US interests section in Cuba's capital, Havana. The US Ambassador to Turkey, Ross Wilson, spoke back in 2005 about the possibility of opening an interests section in Iran. This is an indication that the US and Iran have actually been in contact for some time.
How much can the EU's recent sanctions on Iran and restrictions on Iranian banks force Iran to accept a solution? Following the EU's decision, Iran announced that it would shift all of its bank accounts from Europe to Asia.4 The cocoon made up of secret negotiations, military exercises and the quest for establishing diplomatic relations may as well be broken open by an economic solution.
Iran-Iraq Faultline
Another important consequence of the secret negotiations is that Iran may help ease the US's hand in Iraq. It is noteworthy that Iranian organisations in Iraq, such as Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Army, have recently been very quiet. The Iraqi Prime minister Maliki, himself a Shiite, visited Tehran at the beginning of June and said at the outset of his visit, "we come loaded and will leave loaded." What he had in mind was probably not limited to the reconstruction of Iraq. Maliki also said that Iraq's military cooperation with the US was not directed against Iran, which meant that the visit was not merely about bilateral relations.
For Iran the decisive factor will be whether it will receive security guarantees. This constituted the crux of Iran's proposal package delivered to the US by the UN, EU and Switzerland on 14 May. The effect of the secret meeting in Ankara can be observed in the contents of the package: Proposals revolved around democracy, energy security, economic cooperation and constructive cooperation on nuclear matters. It seems that the framework of Iran's proposal package was drawn up behind closed doors at the secret meeting in Ankara. Iran's ambassador to the EU, Ali Askhar Khaji, signalled that a new phase has been entered when he said that the proposed solutions offered a wider approach covering more than only the nuclear issue.
Balances within Iran
Kamal Kharrazi who represented Iran at the secret meeting in Ankara is a key figure in terms of balances within Iran. He heads the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations which consists of five members appointed by the religious leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei. The Council was quietly established and did not get much press in the international arena. It is, however, an important indicator of possible balances within Iran in the post-Ahmadinejad era. Establishment of the Council irritated the Ahmadinejad administration. The first reaction to the Council came from the Government Spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham. He stated that the Council had only an advisory role and did not have any executive powers.
The Council is made up of political figures that are considered as reformists. Members elected for a five year term alongside Kharrazi had previously served as high level administrators under the governments of ex-Presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. Among the Council members are two former cabinet ministers under Khatami and colleagues of Kharrazi: Former Minister of Trade, Mohammad Shariatmadar, and former Minister of Defence, General Ali Shamkhani. The remaining members are the Foreign Minister of the Rafsanjani period, Ali Akbar Velayati, and former Ambassador Hussein Tarumi.
The Council has three important tasks: to assist in taking important decisions, to seek new foreign policy approaches and to consult expert advice. The Council reports directly to the religious leader, Khamenei.
According to some commentators, it was Khamenei, displeased with Ahmadinejad's foreign policy that decided to establish a body with a more moderate approach. The fact that Kamal Kharrazi attended the secret meeting with the Americans in Ankara as the head of Strategic Council for Foreign Relations is a historical development for Iran. However, it is not clear how much this meeting and its results will be taken into account by the Ahmedinejad administration.
Regional Balances
During a visit to the Middle East in June a high ranking British diplomat said, "We will wake up one day and find that Iran has been hit!" If that happens, it will be an attack carried out solely by Israel because the US and Iran have already started a process of rapprochement. The consensus reached by the West and Hezbollah on Lebanese presidential elections can be interpreted as an indication of this process.
Certainly, all this does not mean that all the hatchets have been buried. It is still not clear how much Washington can control Israel. However, one thing is for sure: As one Jordanian official put it, "July will be hot!"

Endnotes
I) A Sunday newspaper in Switzerland (reported by the BBC) find correct reference
2) "U.S. Says Israeli Exercise Seemed Directed at Iran", The New York Times, 20 June 2008.
3) See Associated Press, 24 June 2008, for news on US plans to open an interest section in Iran.
4) Die Presse, 25 June 2008.