The geographical area Iran occupies (petrol aside) has always provided important geopolitical advantages to those who control it. This is the reason that Iran has been invaded many times by dominant powers throughout its history. In order to continue the global superiority it gained at the end of the Cold War into the 21st century, the USA has put into action the ‘New American Century project'. The following conditions need to be put into place for realisation of this project:
1. To prevent the emergence of rival powers to the US and to stop them from uniting against the US.
2. To ensure the security of energy sources and the routes it would take to reach the open market.
3. To ensure the continuation of a controllable (threatening) opposing power.
All of the above conditions can be realised in the Middle East and especially the Gulf region. For this reason, the USA has put into action ‘The Great Middle Eastern Project', making use of the opportunity created by the "9/11" attacks, it has proceeded to occupy Afghanistan, followed by Iraq. America was successful in overturning the regimes of these countries in a short space of time, but has been equally unsuccessful in bringing in the new regimes it wants in their place. It is still unclear how long the stabilisation and reorganisation phase for both countries is going to take and what the cost in human tragedies will be. American plans on the Middle East are not confined to Afghanistan and Iraq, they also encompass 22 Islamic states in the region as openly stated by US officials. Maps that have been published in the American ArmedForces Journal clearly show how they wish to shape the region.
This raises two questions:
1. Which country is next?
2. Has the USA enough power to put these plans into action?
Of the candidate countries, Iran and Syria are forerunners to be next in line. The instability in Pakistan that started following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto brings this country onto the agenda. However, all indications point to Iran being the next in line. In fact, one of the main purposes of occupying Afghanistan and Iraq was to surround Iran. Us- ing the instability as a pretext for strengthening its control over Pakistan, and the PKK as a bargaining chip to gain closer cooperation with the Turkish government could be steps the USA are taking to complete the missing links for surrounding Iran.
The Importance of Iran
Why Iran? There are three important reasons for Iran to be targeted:
1. The advantages that Iran's geographical position can bring the USA (Geopolitical).
2. The advantages of Iran's petrol and gas resources for the USA (Petrol-political).
3. The necessity to re-establish the balance of power that has changed in the area after the occupation of Iraq (Real-politics). The geographical area Iran occupies (petrol aside) has always provided important geopolitical advantages to those who control it. This is the reason that Iran has been invaded many times by dominant powers throughout its history. Iran's geographic location gives it the ability to control the Gulf region which is the heart of the Middle East. Whoever controls Iran also has control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. If an invading power wished to expand out to Central Asia then Iran is the first region that they would want to control. Similarly, Iran's geographic location also allows access to the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea and is important in having the ability to influence Anatolia from the Southeast. For these reasons, irrespective of petrol, any power that has plans for the Middle East will find the realisation of their plans impossible without having some form of control over Iran. In addition to the advantages of its geographical position, another attribute of Iran that inflates the appetite of Imperialists are the richness of its petrol and natural gas resources. According to data from the World Trade Organisation, 84% of total world commodity trade is conducted within and between the USA, Europe and the Far East. The two main elements of commodity trade being production and transportation are only possible with energy. Likewise, 27% of the world's petrol consumption is used in industry and 66% for transportation. The Problem here is that the regions where the highest level of petrol and gas is required and the regions where most petrol and gas is actually geographically located are different In other words the countries that consume the most petrol and natural gas do not own enough sources. Out of the 5 biggest petrol consum consumers of the world which are the USA, China, Japan, Russia and India, only Russia has sufficient
resources of her own, the others being clear petrol importers The USA, which comprises 5% of the total global population, consumes 23% of the world's petrol. The European Community imports half of the petrol it consumes. It is estimated that by 2020 this proportion will increase to 67% for petrol and 75% for natural gas. China, which has an annual growth rate of 10%, currently obtains 40% of its petrol from external sources; this is expected to rise to 60% by the year 2020. As for Japan it is totally dependant on imports for all of its petrol and gas equirements. The USA imports 68% of the total petrol it consumes (22% of this is imported from the Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq). These figures clearly show us that the USA's main commercial partners, more so than itself, are dependent on external sources for their petrol.

55.22% of world petrol reserves and 40.6% of natural gas reserves are in the Gulf region. These figures for Iran respectively are 10.3% and 15.8%. When it comes to production; 31% of petrol and 10.6% of gas is produced in the Gulf States. Iran produces 5.7% of the worlds petrol supply and 3.5% of gas. By the year 2020, a third of the world's petrol production and 60% of global trade in petrol will be carried out by countries in the Gulf region. Petrol produced by the Gulf States has to pass through one of three critical straits in order to reach the world markets: Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Bab-el Mendeb and the Suez Canal. 90% of the Gulf's petrol (40% of global supply) is exported to markets by passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the main reason why petrol and natural gas produced by the Gulf States plays an important role in determining global prices. It is of vital National importance for the USA that the supply of these resources is constant and that it reaches the global markets at a reasonable price. An increase in the price of fuel for one of the USA's petrol dependent trading partners would lead to a reduced demand of US exports to those countries and an increase in the cost of American imports from those countries. This in turn would put great strain on the consumer based US economy as it did in the 1973 crisis. It was for this reason, the USA started giving military aid to Saudi Arabia as early as 1943, sold 20 billion dollars worth of weapons to Iran in order to modernise its armed forces in the 1970's and in 1980 it declared its Carter Doctrine stating that it would use military means to protect its interests in the Persian Gulf. In accordance with this doctrine, a ‘Rapid eployment Force' was established with its headquarters being situated in Tampa, Florida and in 1983 it was being used as command headquarters (CENTCOM). Today, operations in Afghanistan and Iraq have been directed from this military command centre. The 1991 Gulf War has shown that the USA was not prepared to let Iraq become a major player in the Gulf region by taking control of Kuwaiti petrol resources. For the USA, being in control of the Gulf region oil, means that they can control the energy sources to countries, particularly like China, who have the potential to challenge the US and their international dominance. For all of these reasons, it means that for the USA who currently occupies Iraq, Iran is "the next country in line" in order for it to continue controlling Gulf oil. The third reason for Iran to become a prime target for the USA is the balance in power emerging in the Middle East following the US led occupation of Iraq. The occupation of Iraq has been mostly to Iran's benefit because:
* One of Iran's major competitors have been removed with the overthrow of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan -The overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime will have been a relief to Iran.
* The dismantling of the biggest threat in the region, the Iraqi Armed Forces, which fought against Iran for 8 years prior to the US occupation and has now been replaced by an Iraqi Armed Force which, let alone pose a threat to Iran, is far from being able to even ensure the countries own internal security.
* The USA, in terms of military power, has engaged itself to a great extent with Afghanistan and Iraq. The US armed forces (particularly the ground forces), do not currently have the capability of carrying out operations in areas other than Iraq and Afghanistan apart from in Iraq and Afghanistan. This strengthens Iran's hand.
* The US forces in Iraq have become closer targets for Iran. US soldiers and bases are now within Iranian missile range.
* The overthrow by the USA of a Sunni regime and installation of a Shia regime in Iraq is to the benefit of the Shia regime in Iran.
* Iraq is now in the process of partitioning following the US led occupation. This new situation opened the door of opportunity for cooperation between Iran and the Shia majority in the South of Iraq and for Shia domination to be created in the Gulf region.
* The US occupation of Iraq has created a Shia-Sunni axis in the region and has promoted Iran's position to leader of the Shia axis in the process. A tangible example of this was seen in the support given by Iran to Hezbollah during the last Lebanese war.
* Again, the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq and the disrespect shown by the US to the local culture and its inhumane policies have created a very strong opposition, even anti-American feeling in the region. Even in Turkey, an ally to the US for the last 50 years has seen anti-Americanism rise to 90% draws attention. Growing anti-Americanism in the region has given further weight to Iran's position.
* Finally, the rising price of petrol, which has been affected by the war in Iraq, has been beneficial to an oil exporting country like Iran. This portrait shows us that US actions have made Iran the most powerful country in the Gulf region. Until the USA can bring the Iraqi forces to a level that would enable a balance of power to counteract Iran's then any withdrawal or reduction of their armed forces in the region would leave behind the balance of power in favour of Iran.
Even if all the desired conditions in Iraq are realised, the USA cannot withdraw from Iraq purely for this reason. As for the Iraqi Armed Forces becoming an effective counterbalance to that of Iran's, that will need a lot more time. This situation fits in with the historical behaviour pattern of imperialism. Whilst imperialist countries continuously expand for their economical benefit then so does the area they need to secure increase with that expansion. In this process, once you have gained control of an area, then this gives rise for the need to take control of the neighbouring areas. Eventually, this expansion passes the optimum limits, the cost of expansion grows and the Empire starts to break up. The USA has now entered such a process. Any intervention in Iran will increase the cost of expansion for the USA. The three factors given above, explain why Iran is "the next country in line" for the USA. What remains now is for the USA to find the excuses for this robable intervention; they need to convince International and American public opinion of the validity of these excuses. The USA has started using the same excuses for Iran as it did against Saddam Hussein before its occupation of Iraq:
1. Production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and long range missile launchers.
2. Supporting terrorism.
3. Abuses of human rights.
It is a serious threat to the USA for Iran to possess nuclear weapons because:
- A nuclear capable Iran is a threat to the existence of American armed forces in the region.
‘The New Middle East Project' cannot be realised under the threat of Iranian WMD's and long range missiles.
- The nuclear superiority of Israel in the region will come to an end.
- The probability of terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons will increase. In American threat scenarios this prospect is the most dangerous.
- An Iran that is producing nuclear weapons will encourage other countries in the region to follow suite. The USA is particularly concerned that Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia will arm themselves with nuclear weapons.
- In this situation, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) system that the USA has been painstakingly trying to protect will come under threat. Nuclear weapons in themselves are not a threat to the USA. Nuclear weapons in the hands of an opposing regime to the USA are a threat (regime + nuclear). Otherwise, although many of the USA's allies have nuclear weapons, it does not seem to disturb them. On the other hand, for an anti-US regime to have possession of nuclear weapons acts as a "power multiplier" and significantly increases the threat. For this reason, the USA is trying to prevent an opposing regime like Iran from developing nuclear weapons whilst in Pakistan the USA is doing the opposite in trying to ensure that the current nuclear weapons do not pass into the hands of American enemies. But the main reason for Iran becoming a target goes much further than just the possibility of Iran making nuclear weapons, it is much more deep and comprehensive. Although American intelligence agencies have disclosed that since 2003 Iran has stopped its uranium enrichment program, this will not prevent the USA from interfering in Iran, it will only push them to find other excuses. But before the USA interferes in this country they need to thoroughly consider the limits of their own strength and what long term effects such interference will have on the region.

*Strategist, Retired General, Turkey.